Against all odds & by proving many pundits & policy experts wrong, Assad has seemingly survived brutal 10 y old war
Yes, he needed & received both the commitment & support of his two allies in this endeavor
But what is he likely to do next?
2-In spite of #Syria ‘s super centralized system that gives the President ultimate power & control over every facet of Governance, it is shocking how little academic & professional psychoanalysis has been performed on the personality of Assad as an individual
3-Having been in power for over 20 years now, most of the coverage on Assad has been shallow, generic & even schizophrenic
He started as educated reformer then was thought to be likely to quickly cut and run, only to ultimately end up as child killer & mass murderer & monster
4-While the outside views on Assad shifted and turned over the past 20 years, a careful reader of his speeches & actions would have observed a far more consistent pattern
Sadly, this was missed by many pundits, policy makers & #Syria ‘s own opposition
5-Hafez Assad was a larger than life personality
At every fork in the road & when Bashar Assad had to make a choice, he was always likely to take the more hawkish path to prove his credentials & convince both his supporters and adversaries that he isn’t the push-over they think
6-Over the last 20 years, every time you had to guess which way Assad would lean, betting on the most hawkish side would have consistently worked
Assad has proved over & over again that anyone that underestimates his resolve to hold on to power does so at their own peril
7-While on topic consider this:
While Hafez Assad was surrounded by big personalities like Douba, Aslan, Nassif & others
Bashar Assad hardly has a single big name that is deemed indispensable. He can ask any head of security to stay home that day & hardly anyone would notice
8-When discussing Assad’s next move, it’s always about what he “should” do versus what he is “likely to do”
What he is likely to do is the easy part:
Do Nothing & continue on the current status quo. Either change constitution & get another term in 2028 or hand it to his son
9-What Assad “should” do all depends on who is making the suggestion
One interpretation of the UN resolution wants him to transition out of power
More realistic suggestions is for Assad to share power
10-But, what does sharing power mean?
And if Assad did not yield to such demands during past 10 years, is he likely to do so now?
Those who studied the subject closely think they have the solution:
Decentralization - handing more power away from the center to the periphery
11-Just today, group calling itself Tribes of Horan put out a statement calling for Assad and his government to allow municipalities and Governorates to have more say in the way they govern themselves at the expense of the far away center
12-Damascus has had its own attempts at decentralization in the past. Back in early 2011 we learnt from Wikileaks how one of Assad’s advisors once sent him a note cautioning him strongly against going down that path for fear that Islamists would inevitably win local elections
13-While this could well end up as wishful thinking
One can’t but wonder / hope / wish / question whether Assad would embark on a real endeavor to chart a path that would allow a true attempt at “Decentralization” knowing that the devil of such discussions is in the details
14-Why would Assad do this now?
Perhaps as a leader of an initiative that he himself supports and embraces
An initiative that shows Western capitals and even Moscow that he is ready to take #Syria to the next post-war phase
15-In the end, do i see a chance that this path will be taken anytime soon?
No, I don’t
Not if one follows the long pattern and distinguishes between what Assad is likely to do versus what some or many think he should do
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When one participates in any Eco / Political discussions in multi-Religious / Sectarian regions like the Levant #Lebanon#Syria , one question always emerges:
Can the people of this region Co-exist?
Can they accept / embrace the other side?
By all accounts, answer seems No
2-War in #Syria has rendered the days of heavy top-down Centralized State obsolete. Efforts must now be exclusively directed at formulating a new post war system that takes away power from the center & hands it to the periphery as this is the de facto state of affairs anyway
3-While #Lebanon already had its own civil war, it is not difficult to notice the return of the old sectarian cleavages that never went away. As the pie gets smaller with the current crisis, divisions have intensified & spirit of co-existence is tested in daily commentary
You’ve been bombarded by experts on what #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis is all about
Here is a simple explanation:
Consumers between 1997-2018 outsmarted / screwed current and future Lebanese consumers by using an overvalued currency to fund their purchases
End of story
2-This is not to say this was a deliberate or conscious decision by 1997-2018 to screw or outsmart the future generation of consumers
As one of my friends used to tell me
Living in #Lebanon during that period was too good to be true. He may not have known why but he felt it
3-This friend was huge spender. He lived at one of the city’s 5 star hotels for almost 18 years. He earned enough interest income to fund his lavish life style. He bought real estate. He had a driver. When I met him in late 2019, he said:
1-Israel
2-Oil
3-Counter-Terrorism / War on Terror
Are the broad categories that define U.S strategic interests in the region
Many have attempted to include the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in above list. Syria has been a case in point ==>
2-Israel & Oil are already secured enough
This has left counter terrorism or war on terror (WOT) as main rationale behind recent U.S interventions
Responsibility to Protect has been getting traction of late but as Syria’s case has shown it’s still work in progress in DC
3-Sep 11 of course capitulated War on Terror to the top of list behind recent U.S interventions in the region. While many may argue this was politically unavoidable in the case of Afghanistan, what about the more recent interventions to help defeat ISIS?
#Russia ‘s military intervention in #Syria was arguably the decisive turning point that decided the war
Yet,
When did Damascus decide to reach out to Moscow?
Did Washington know?
More importantly, could the U.S have done anything to prevent the intervention
==>
2-As early as 2012, Damascus had become aware that the war posed an existential risk to the system. Messages were sent to key opposition leaders that unless the situation was soon brought under control, leadership will have no option but to reach to our "big allies"
3-When Damascus became convinced that opposition had no intention of rolling back the unfolding crisis, decision was made to reach out to the big allies. Initial communication with Moscow took place in 2012 via respective heads of security