Thread by @EHSANI221

Assad’s Next Move? #Syria Thread:

Against all odds & by proving many pundits & policy experts wrong, Assad has seemingly survived brutal 10 y old war

Yes, he needed & received both the commitment & support of his two allies in this endeavor

But what is he likely to do next?

2-In spite of #Syria ‘s super centralized system that gives the President ultimate power & control over every facet of Governance, it is shocking how little academic & professional psychoanalysis has been performed on the personality of Assad as an individual

3-Having been in power for over 20 years now, most of the coverage on Assad has been shallow, generic & even schizophrenic

He started as educated reformer then was thought to be likely to quickly cut and run, only to ultimately end up as child killer & mass murderer & monster

4-While the outside views on Assad shifted and turned over the past 20 years, a careful reader of his speeches & actions would have observed a far more consistent pattern

Sadly, this was missed by many pundits, policy makers & #Syria ‘s own opposition

5-Hafez Assad was a larger than life personality

At every fork in the road & when Bashar Assad had to make a choice, he was always likely to take the more hawkish path to prove his credentials & convince both his supporters and adversaries that he isn’t the push-over they think

6-Over the last 20 years, every time you had to guess which way Assad would lean, betting on the most hawkish side would have consistently worked

Assad has proved over & over again that anyone that underestimates his resolve to hold on to power does so at their own peril

7-While on topic consider this:

While Hafez Assad was surrounded by big personalities like Douba, Aslan, Nassif & others

Bashar Assad hardly has a single big name that is deemed indispensable. He can ask any head of security to stay home that day & hardly anyone would notice

8-When discussing Assad’s next move, it’s always about what he “should” do versus what he is “likely to do”

What he is likely to do is the easy part:

Do Nothing & continue on the current status quo. Either change constitution & get another term in 2028 or hand it to his son

9-What Assad “should” do all depends on who is making the suggestion

One interpretation of the UN resolution wants him to transition out of power

More realistic suggestions is for Assad to share power

10-But, what does sharing power mean?

And if Assad did not yield to such demands during past 10 years, is he likely to do so now?

Those who studied the subject closely think they have the solution:

Decentralization - handing more power away from the center to the periphery

11-Just today, group calling itself Tribes of Horan put out a statement calling for Assad and his government to allow municipalities and Governorates to have more say in the way they govern themselves at the expense of the far away center

@nntaleb for one would approve of

12-Damascus has had its own attempts at decentralization in the past. Back in early 2011 we learnt from Wikileaks how one of Assad’s advisors once sent him a note cautioning him strongly against going down that path for fear that Islamists would inevitably win local elections

13-While this could well end up as wishful thinking

One can’t but wonder / hope / wish / question whether Assad would embark on a real endeavor to chart a path that would allow a true attempt at “Decentralization” knowing that the devil of such discussions is in the details

14-Why would Assad do this now?

Perhaps as a leader of an initiative that he himself supports and embraces

An initiative that shows Western capitals and even Moscow that he is ready to take #Syria to the next post-war phase

15-In the end, do i see a chance that this path will be taken anytime soon?

No, I don’t

Not if one follows the long pattern and distinguishes between what Assad is likely to do versus what some or many think he should do