Thread by @TheLawyerCraig

We now enter the week that most of us on the chart below put down as the US #Covid19 peak. The average had us peaking by 8/12 (23 days). The mode/median was by 8/10 (3 weeks). So how are we doing?

🧵Thread🧵

https://twitter.com/districtai/status/1417483433228607488

I, of course, being the optimist that I am, followed up and threw down a single day as my stake in the ground: 8/4.

https://twitter.com/TheLawyerCraig/status/1417504027726815232?s=20

Well, 8/4 has come and gone, and US reported cases per the CDC have decidedly not peaked. But was 8/4 close? Are we close now? I think so, but that depends on two factors: (1) test levels, and (2) reporting lags. If we tested/reported like the UK, we may already be post-peak.

Take a look at the screenshot from the CDC. I've highlighted the 7DA cases and the 7DA positivity %. Now these numbers can "breathe" a bit as the CDC backfills data over time, but you see we're still on the way up in terms of cases. Not necessarily so in terms of % positive.

The UK hit its 7DA peak of 47,696 reported cases on the *same day* that it hit its % positive peak of 4.78%. Why? They maintained a high testing level per capita—5x to 6x that of the US—and have a more standardized reporting system.

The US hasn't captured nearly the percentage of infections (via testing, which equals cases) as the UK. Had we tested like them, I don't know if we/the media could have handled seeing those case numbers. It's one thing to know infections could = 5-7x cases, but another to see it.

It's tough trying to hit a moving target with US reported cases. Our rise in tests *appear* to be outpacing our rise in cases at this point. That is borne out in several early mover states, in which the % positive peak precedes the reported case peak, sometimes by several days.

But % positive doesn't even account for the case reporting lag that tends to be longer in the US as a whole than smaller/more routinized reporting countries, though it varies by state. In the past, it has also tended to be worse (more "laggy") during surges like now.

What's all this mean? We're probably around, or near, or even just past, our actual infection peak by now. It means in making my optimistic 8/4 *reported* prediction, I "fell victim to one of the classic blunders:" I unwittingly scoffed long-tailed reporting and test increases.

(Come to think of it, in my 10+ years active duty, I also got involved in a land war in Asia, so I suspect Vizzini's doubly disappointed in me)

Bottom line: I think we're still about right in the wheelhouse with the 3-week prediction. If we continue to ratchet up tests materially, then it's tougher to find *the* peak. I do think our % positive peak will remain in the first week of August when the data's sorted, though.