Its all in data & analytics… while #COVID19 data is imperfect, its critical to regularly analyze, discuss and tailor our responses as, when and where needed. @WHO 1/11
Cases, hospitalizations, ICU capacities, deaths, risk factors, vaccination status, test +, vaccine efficacy, incidence, trends, transmission, attack rates, impact of interventions, research results, inequity, access, capacities, costs, etc analyzed by 100,000s around 🌎 daily. 2/
For 7 consecutive weeks, cases of #COVID19 have increased and deaths have hovered at around 64-65k/week.
Last week there were, again, >4 million cases reported to @WHO pushing us over a tragic 202,000,000 cases that we know about…Far more cases have occurred worldwide. 3/
But it is so much more than numbers and #COVID19 statistics provided by so many dedicated professionals & partners all over the world.
Each of these numbers is a story. Each represents a person, a family, a community, a society, a health or care worker, a future … 4/
As we have been saying, this pandemic is sadly far from over. More information on global, regional & national trends can be found here covid19.who.int and each week in our weekly @WHO#COVID19 epidemiological situation report (published each Tuesday). 5/
… So what do we do?
Do we give up?
Do we throw in the towel?
Hell no… We remain vigilant.
6/
We remain strong… we reinforce & scale up… our surveillance, robust testing with rapid results, we link surveillance with life saving actions of isolation & clinical care of those infected, support contacts in quarantine, we support our health and essential work force… 7/
…we protect our health workers with training & PPE, we supply therapeutics to those in need, we communicate all of this regularly, openly, honestly & with humility, we finance the response, we ensure vaccines reach those most in need everywhere. We fight for #VaccinEquity … 8/
We fight against misinformation, we issue updated technical guidance and support implementation, we listen, engage, empower, inform, educate, learn from communities… we innovate, we adjust our actions accordingly… We remain patient. 9/
We also mourn, we reflect, we hug those we can, we find joy, we go easy on ourselves, we remain hopeful. 10/
We are in this together and we have the tools to get out of this together.
The virus is evolving and the #DeltaVariant is challenging us even further. BUT remember that we can outmaneuver this virus with our FAR superior tools we have in our toolkit right now.
Today was a really important step forward in work to better understand the origins of #SARSCoV2 & for the emergence of all future novel pathogens of epidemic & pandemic potential…
“Earlier this week, Member States received a circular letter detailing the proposed next steps that the (@WHO) Secretariat will take to advance those studies, in several areas…
“1️⃣ integrated studies of humans, wildlife, captive and farmed animals, and environment, as part of a #OneHealth approach;
Statement on the eighth meeting of the International Health Regulations #IHR (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the coronavirus disease (#COVID19) pandemic @WHO
The @WHO secretariat highlighted factors driving the current situation including:
➡️variants of concern,
➡️inconsistent application of public health & social measures,
➡️increased social mixing & mobility, &
➡️highly susceptible pop due to lack of equitable vaccine distribution
“The Committee noted that, despite national, regional, and global efforts, the pandemic is nowhere near finished. The pandemic continues to evolve with four variants of concern dominating global epidemiology….
I’m struggling with how best to stress how fragile the global situation is, so I’ll be blunt:
Each week >2.6 million cases and >53,000 deaths are reported to @WHO
Reported, meaning that there are many others.
Stop and think about that.
(Short thread⬇️)
Compared to last week, there has been about (exact % will be shared in tomorrow @WHO sit rep):
➡️ 15% increases in cases in @WHOAFRO
➡️ 29% increase in @WHO_Europe (last week was 10%⬆️)
➡️ 14% increase in @WHOEMRO
➡️ 7% increased in @WHOSEARO
➡️ 10% increase in @WHOWPRO
Conclusions: Rapid replacement means that epidemiological assessment of new variants must be conducted quickly and regularly if PHSM are to continue to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Given limitations and inherent delays in detecting emerging variants and investigating their phenotypic impacts, the use and adjustment of PHSM should continue to be informed by traditional epidemiological surveillance.
There is a lot of concern over the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and there should be. The #SARSCoV2 virus is dangerous, & more transmissible variants are even more dangerous.
What we know: available analyses show that there is increased transmissibility of delta, more than the ancestral virus, more than alpha variant. We are seeing convergent evolution.
There is a suggestion of increased severity, but more info is needed to understand this.
Diagnostics work; many studies are underway related to vaccines, but available results suggest vaccines work against severe disease & death.
The labels for VOI/VOC are simple, easy to say & remember & are based on the Greek alphabet, a system that was chosen following wide consultation & a review of several potential systems.
The labels don’t replace existing scientific names, which convey impt scientific info and will continue to be used in research (& by @nextstrain@GISAID & Pango).
These labels will help with public discussion about VOC/VOI as the numbering system can be difficult to follow.