.@SIGARHQ released its latest quarterly report on #Afghanistan today. Some key points in this THREAD.

1/n

sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyr…
@SIGARHQ Data from @USFOR_A shows that enemy-initiated attacks increased significantly since the signing of the US-#Taliban Agreement. During the past quarter (March – May 2021), USFOR-A reported 10,383 enemy-initiated attacks and 3,268 effective enemy-initiated attacks. 2/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A Most ANA corps refuse to execute missions w/o spt from the ANA Special Operations Corps (ANASOC), according to NSOCC-A. When ANASOC forces do arrive, they're misused to perform tasks intended for conventional forces such as route clearance, checkpoint security, & QRF. 3/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A NSOCC-A also reported that misuse of the Special Mission Wing also increased significantly this quarter compared to both last quarter and a year ago. 4/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A All of the Afghan Air Force’s aircraft are overtaxed due to increased requests for close air support, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance missions, & aerial resupply now that the #ANDSF lacks US air support. 5/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A All AAF airframes are flying at least 25% over their recommended scheduled-maintenance intervals. Meanwhile “crews remain overtasked due to the security situation in #Afghanistan and the OPSTEMPO has only increased,” according to TAAC-Air. 6/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A Five of the seven airframes in the AAF experienced decreases in readiness in June. The AC-208 fleet had maintained a 93% readiness rate in April and May, but dropped to 63% in June. The UH-60 fleet was at 77% in April and May, but dropped to 39% in June. 7/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A Civilian casualties continued to rise this quarter, according to Resolute Support. The command reported 2,035 civilian casualties in April & May 2021, including 705 deaths & 1,330 injuries. This total is nearly as high as the three months January through March 2021 (2,149). 8/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A As of early June, there were 7,795 DOD contractors supporting ops in #Afghanistan (incl 2,656 US citizens, 2,491 3rd country nationals & 2,648 Afghans). This was a decrease of 9,037 total contractors (~54%), including 3,491 US contractors (~57%) from the previous quarter. 9/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A Afghan opium-poppy cultivation in 2020 increased by 37% over the previous year, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. The new cultivation estimated tied with 2014 as the third-highest level since estimates began in 1994. 10/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A According to the UN, the number of Afghans requiring humanitarian assistance in 2021 has reached approximately half of #Afghanistan’s total estimated population. This figure is nearly double that of 2020, and a six-fold increase compared to four years ago. 11/n
@SIGARHQ @USFOR_A Security assistance to #Afghanistan is now conducted “over-the-horizon” from #Qatar by the Defense Security Coop Mgmt Office-AFG (DSCMO-A). Resolute Support said reduced US forces in AFG will constrain DSCMO-A’s capacity to monitor use of ASFF funds & procured materials. 12/12

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More from @JJSchroden

29 Jul
Comments on #Afghanistan by @PentagonPresSec in today's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec Q: On the SIVs, the flights. do you have any updates? They were supposed to come in on the 29th. Have they landed? Processing at Fort Lee? Anything? 2/n
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: I’m going to have to refer you to the State Dept for that. I don’t have any updates for you. As you know, when this first group of special immigrants do get to the US, they will be temporarily housed at Fort Lee. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
15 Jul
There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the level of #Taliban control in #Afghanistan, so this is a brief THREAD on that topic. 1/n
The debates about district control go back a long time. I was first involved in these during my time @CENTCOM circa 2009. At that time, ISAF was producing district control maps, as was CENTCOM & @DefenseIntel (among others). None of them agreed on methods or results. 2/n
@CENTCOM @DefenseIntel Later, while with ISAF & at the command’s request, I wrote an internal memo laying out the challenges with the various methodologies involved with assessing "control" at the district level in #Afghanistan. 3/n
Read 14 tweets
14 Jul
Comments on #Afghanistan from today's presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: @SecDef & the Chairman were proud & delighted to greet GEN Miller earlier this morning when he arrived at Andrews Air Force Base. I think you saw some of the coverage of that. & the Secretary, I think, will have a little something more out today... 2/n
@PentagonPresSec @SecDef ...but @SecDef deeply appreciates GEN Miller's leadership, not only over the last three years in #Afghanistan but over the long course of his career. Certainly there's very few military officers who have as much experience as he does in AFG over the last 20 years &... 3/n
Read 48 tweets
13 Jul
Comments on #Afghanistan from yesterday's #DOD presser w/@PentagonPresSec in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
@PentagonPresSec MR. KIRBY: Earlier today, you know there was a transition of authority ceremony held at Resolute Support HQ in Kabul, #Afghanistan, marking the transition of command authorities from GEN Scott Miller to the commander of @CENTCOM, Gen Frank McKenzie... 2/n
@PentagonPresSec @CENTCOM ...As the secretary approved earlier this month, and as we outlined to you on July 2nd, Gen McKenzie will now lead the US mission in #Afghanistan, and that's focused on 4 things: 1) protecting our diplomatic presence in country; 2) enabling the safe operation of... 3/n
Read 95 tweets
13 Jul
"Last autumn, with the departure of American troops from #Afghanistan looming after the US signed a withdrawal deal with the #Taliban, several of the most senior security officials in Kabul urged President @ashrafghani to make some hard choices." 1/n

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
@ashrafghani "The Afghan army & police needed to retrench, figures incl the then defense minister, Assadullah Khalid, told Ghani. Remote outposts & rural areas where troops held little more than the cluster of govt & security buildings that make up a district center should be abandoned." 2/n
@ashrafghani "Troops & ammunition drawn back from these areas could focus on the fight for more important assets, such as key roads & border crossings, as forces adapted to the loss of the US air force & other technical support that had been critical to fighting the Taliban, they argued." 3/n
Read 6 tweets
12 Jul
A number of people have been asking my thoughts on recent developments in #Afghanistan. Now that I’m back from a week of sandcastle building, a THREAD to that effect. 1/n
1st, a few thoughts on recent #Taliban gains. That the TB are suddenly gaining ground in rural areas shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone. eg, I predicted the group would have a slight military adv post-US withdrawal in a @CTCWP paper back in JAN: ctc.usma.edu/afghanistans-s… 2/n
@CTCWP The #Taliban have—for years—been employing a strategy of capturing rural areas IOT generate position & resources to threaten more populated areas, as we @CNA_org described in our independent threat assessment for Congress back in 2013 (cna.org/cna_files/pdf/…). 3/n
Read 25 tweets

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