Thread by @AllenAu11

Deducing #BTC's Peak Price from its Golden Crosses*

TLDR: There'd be a relationship between when the first golden cross occurs after a BTC bear phase & its peak price. The secret lies in "4".

If so, BTC's peak price may be $143K in this cycle (see Notes).

*50d EMA 🔀 200d EMA

1/ Right before the 1st halving, a golden cross occurred & #BTC rallied 235x from the golden cross daily closing price to the 2nd cycle top.

Similarly, after the bear phase of the 2nd cycle, a golden cross occurred & BTC's price rallied 60x to the 3rd cycle top.

NB: 235/60= ~4

2a/ Right after the bear phase of the 3rd cycle, a golden cross also occurred & #BTC's price rallied 12.5X from the golden cross daily closing price to its ATH of $64.9K.

A mid-cycle correction ensued where BTC corrected by 55% & BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA.

2b/ #BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA during the mid-cycle low in the 2nd cycle.

There were 2 tops in that cycle. The price increased 52x from the golden cross daily closing price to the 1st top & 17.5x from the mid-cycle low daily closing price to the final top.

3/ If $64.9K is #BTC's interim top in this 4th cycle like the 2nd cycle, there's another top to be had in this cycle.

It so happens that the price increase from the first & only golden cross in the 2nd cycle is 4 times that of the current one.

NB: 52/12.5= ~4

4/ If 4 is the magic number, it's possible that #BTC's price increase from the current mid-cycle low daily closing price to the cycle top is 1/4 of that in the 2nd cycle.

Mid-Cycle Low DC Price: $32545
Projected Price Increase: 17.5x/4= 4.4x
Cycle Peak Price: $32545 x 4.4= $143K

5/ Notes:

$143K is similar to #CTM's "Mission Accomplished Price", but not the projected peak target of $260K-$410K. My base case is a lot higher also.

1st Cycle- Genesis block-1st halving
2nd Cycle- 1st to 2nd halving
3rd Cycle- 2nd to 3rd halving
4th Cycle- 3rd to 4th halving