Key points from my Explainer for @BBCMonitoring about the latest jihadist responses to the Taliban's rapid territorial gains /1
Online jihadists, with the exception of ISIS, have been widely cheering the swift territorial gains made by the Taliban in recent days, with some highlighting the long-term benefits for jihadists more broadly 2/
Al-Qaeda's Sahel leader, Iyad Ag Ghali, said in a 10 August message that the Taliban's recent advances marked a "historic" moment, as he congratulated the group on its military feats 3/
Jihadists have attributed the Afghan group's success to its long-standing unity and its persistence in combating its enemies, despite the setbacks it has suffered 4/
There was also praise by jihadist pragmatists for the Taliban's political "prowess" in being heavy-handed on the ground while also exercising soft power to assure the public and neutralise potential enemies 5/
Through its official media outlets, the Taliban has embarked on a charm offensive to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans and to avoid antagonising neighbours and regional players such as Russia, China and Iran 6/
Another tactic by the Taliban that is also strongly amplified by its supporters online, is the claim that they are facing limited or no resistance to their advance and that officials, military commanders and soldiers are "surrendering" easily 7/
The Taliban and its supporters claim that this smooth transition of power is because Afghans welcome their presence and that soldiers are either too scared to confront them, or are sympathetic to them, and therefore either laying down their weapons or switching sides 8/
This propaganda is likely designed to demoralise areas that have not yet fallen to the Taliban and get them to surrender quickly 9/
Meanwhile, a pro-al-Qaeda "news agency" wrote on 12 August that "the strength of the Taliban is strength to all the mujahidin, including al-Qaeda, and in all areas, and the coming days will prove this" 10/
Publicly, Taliban has vowed to break ties with transnational jihadist grps, namely AQ, as part of the peace deal. And publicly, the 2 don't claim to have ongoing operational ties. AQ had in the past pledged allegiance to Taliban, but the present status of this bond is unclear 11/
It is undoubtedly in al-Qaeda’s interest to have the Taliban take over Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda is therefore likely willing to keep quiet for now about any Taliban declaration that is unfavourable to al-Qaeda, because there are more important gains to be made in the longer term 12/
Al-Qaeda is clearly careful to not say or do anything that may jeopardise the Taliban’s promise under the peace deal. Al-Qaeda has not yet publicly commented on this thorny clause of the deal involving itself 13/
Meanwhile, hardliners who support al-Qaeda while cheering the Taliban advances seem cautious about the post-conflict phase when the group will become heavily involved in politics and governance-they worry Taliban will take actions that may discredit its jihadist credentials 14/
IS and its supporters are the only jihadist camp not cheering the Taliban advances. This is not surprising as the two are sworn rivals. Amid the jihadist jubilation for the Taliban, IS has been claiming small attacks against the Afghan group, including ones on 12 and 13 Aug 15/
IS is incensed by its rival’s recent successes and will likely try to do all it can to undermine the Taliban's gains 16/
IS may seek to to win over disgruntled Taliban hardlines if the Afghan grp agrees to concessions deemed un-Islamic in the eyes of ultra-extremists (pursuing pragmatic policies with neighbours, regional players). But so far, Taliban seems too strong and united for IS meddling 17/
Already through its official messaging, IS has tried to discredit the Taliban by referring to its peace talks with "infidels" and "apostates". IS calls the Taliban an "apostate militia" 18/
So far, IS supporters on Telegram have largely kept quiet about the Taliban advances, clearly vexed by the group's successes. But the IS camp will be closely watching for any Taliban missteps that would undermine its claim to being an "Islamic emirate" 19/
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