Observations on #Taliban messaging and jihadist reactions to its capture of Kabul #Afghanistan 1/ 👇
The Taliban is running a sophisticated PR campaign on multiple platforms and in multiple languages, trying to win the hearts and minds of Afghans as well as the international community 2/
It's putting out a flurry of messages of assurance to locals, banks, businesses, civilian foreign workers and investors (diplomatic missions, charities), neighbours & regional players. It repeatedly says it wants to 'provide a safe and stable environment' for all 3/
Aware of concerns over women & girls, Taliban tweeted on 16 Aug an image of girls 'on their way to school', saying education for girls continues. Posted a clip allegedly showing a Taliban official assuring a group of female doctors and nurses that they're OK to continue work 4/
The Taliban has also been trying to dispel 'rumours' about violations by the group, and denied reports that it was forcing families to marry off their daughters to Taliban militants 5/
But the group has not yet offered details about social matters and freedoms (age of girls and education, women in the work place and their dress code, etc.). This will likely come later, but soon. Already, female presenters have disappeared from many Afghan TV channels 6/
Images, videos & posts by Taliban and supporters seek to convey a sense of normality, even improvement, under its rule. It claims people are happy about the Taliban’s arrival. In a 13 Aug statement, Taliban said its swift capture of areas is “a testament to [its] huge popularity”
The Taliban is keen to prove that Afghanistan can flourish under its rule, or can at least be a safe and stable country, because this will be a major coup for Islamist governance 8/
But its success is likely hinged on its ability to be flexible and pragmatic - something it's been showing on the political/public messaging front. But such pragmatism to make political gains could easily delegitimize the Taliban in the eyes of the jihadist movement 9/
Jihadists are watching and waiting to see if the Taliban will establish an Islamic state run by Shiaria law, and how genuine and strict such a Sharia state will be 10/
But in the meantime, jihadists, with the exception of ISIS, continue to cheer the Taliban’s ‘historic victory’, seeing the development as being overall beneficial to jihadists and Islamist movements worldwide 11/
The Taliban is acquiring a mythical status as a small group that rose from the ashes and captured a US/Nato-backed country within a few weeks 12/
Still, fault lines are naturally appearing. Some of Taliban’s foreign policy (positive messaging to neighbours, regional players) and claim of wanting to establish an inclusive government
that represents all, does not sit well with hardliners, including al-Qaeda supporters 13/
that represents all, does not sit well with hardliners, including al-Qaeda supporters 13/
Jihadist reservations about the Taliban's politics are so persistent that several al-Qaeda supporters online are repeatedly urging others to park their reservations for now in order to not spoil the celebrations or undermine the victory of the Afghan group 14/
And then of course you have ISIS/IS, which is a staunch rival of the Taliban. The group has continued to claim small attacks on the Taliban, calling it an 'apostate militia' 15/
IS supporters are now widely commenting on events in Afghanistan. The dominant argument they make is that the Taliban is an agent of the US and that the US has handed over Afghanistan to the Taliban through a political deal, which in their view delegitimizes the Taliban 16/
IS supporters say the Taliban will now 'do the dirty work' of the US in Afghanistan 'under the guise of Islam' 17/
IS supporters are reiterating past accusations against the Taliban that in their view undermines the group’s religious credentials. Many of these objections are also shared by al-Qaeda supporters, but the latter mostly suppress their criticism in hope of more important gains 18/
There’s also a lot of squabbling among supporters of the Syria-based jihadist group HTS and supporters of al-Qaeda over whether HTS and the Taliban are similar 19/
Al-Qaeda and supporters consider HTS a sell-out that turned its back on jihad. HTS supporters accuse al-Qaeda of double standards: praising Taliban's political moves but condemning HTS when it pursues similar tactics, such as assuring the West it will not target them 20/
And the main question on many people's mind is: has the Taliban really changed?
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