The Taliban is playing a very clever PR game. Its messaging is focused on amnesty, community reconciliation, stability & reconstruction, allegedly to make Afghanistan a prosperous country with friendly international ties. There’s also a soft, yet vague, msg on women’s rights. 1/
For a country that’s been plagued by conflict, instability & corruption for years, the Taliban thinks it knows what Afghans, and the int. community, want to hear. It also seems keen to win the support of Afghans, rather than only impose its rule by force. 2/
The Taliban says it will run the country & give freedoms to the media, women and other individuals, within the framework of Sharia law. We still don’t know the details of this, as there are various interpretations of Sharia - the Taliban were super strict last time they ruled. 3/
Taliban argues that Afghanistan is a Muslim-majority country and Sharia is a natural part of people’s values. The problem is, if many Afghans don’t want Sharia rule, rejecting it won't be an option under Taliban government. 4/
The Taliban has a tricky balance to achieve: if it wants to win Afghans and intl community, it needs to show genuine flexibility and change. If it does that, or goes too far there, it risks discrediting itself in the eyes of jihadists. But will they even matter to the Taliban? 5/

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More from @Minalami

11 Sep
Thread on 9/11 anniversary, based on @BBCMonitoring analysis. It looks at the state of jihad, particularly that of al-Qaeda, in the context of the current geopolitical developments, esp the Taliban's return to power: monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c202vk… 👇
Jihadists are celebrating the 20th anniversary of 9/11 as a double victory. It coincides with the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, seen as a coup for jihad, and the departure of all US troops from the country /1
Al-Qaeda has been at the forefront in congratulating the Taliban on their "historic victory", saying it foreshadows jihadist gains elsewhere. Jihadists are largely interpreting Taliban's return to power as a divine sign from Allah 2/
Read 25 tweets
20 Aug
Jealous IS snubs Taliban saying it didn’t win Afghanistan through jihad, but was given it on silver platter by US. Argues “new Taliban” is a fake Muslim group US is using to mislead Muslims & fight IS. Says IS is preparing for new phase of jihad, possibly meaning in Afghanistan/1
Also expresses doubt that Taliban will implement true Sharia law in Afghanistan /2
IS supporters, who have been making similar arguments for days now, are likely to launch a coordinated hashtag campaign online to amplify the latest IS message /3
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
Al-Qaeda in Yemen (AQAP) congratulates the #Taliban on its 'historic victory', while ISIS supporters continue to denounce the Afghan group as a nationalist, "apostate" entity and a fake Islamic movement, with some starting to put out anti-Taliban posters 1/
In its message of 18 Aug, AQAP prayed for the success of the Taliban in establishing Sharia rule and upholding "wala and bara" - a key Salafist doctrine meaning loyalty to everything considered Islamic and disavowal of everything considered un-Islamic 2/
Jihadists will be watching to see if the Taliban imposes true Sharia rule in Afghanistan, or implements a watered down version to appease the international community. ISIS supporters think the latter will happen 3/
Read 4 tweets
17 Aug
Observations on #Taliban messaging and jihadist reactions to its capture of Kabul #Afghanistan 1/ 👇
The Taliban is running a sophisticated PR campaign on multiple platforms and in multiple languages, trying to win the hearts and minds of Afghans as well as the international community 2/
It's putting out a flurry of messages of assurance to locals, banks, businesses, civilian foreign workers and investors (diplomatic missions, charities), neighbours & regional players. It repeatedly says it wants to 'provide a safe and stable environment' for all 3/
Read 21 tweets
15 Aug
Key points from my Explainer for @BBCMonitoring about the latest jihadist responses to the Taliban's rapid territorial gains /1
Online jihadists, with the exception of ISIS, have been widely cheering the swift territorial gains made by the Taliban in recent days, with some highlighting the long-term benefits for jihadists more broadly 2/
Al-Qaeda's Sahel leader, Iyad Ag Ghali, said in a 10 August message that the Taliban's recent advances marked a "historic" moment, as he congratulated the group on its military feats 3/
Read 20 tweets
13 Aug
#ISIS supporters have launched a seemingly coordinated anti-Rwanda propaganda campaign online (Telegram), in relation to the country's involvement in the anti-jihadist battle in #Mozambique. The campaign, with the Arabic hashtag 'crimes of Rwanda's Christians', started on 11 Aug
The campaign comes after Rwandan forces recently announced they had assisted Mozambique in retaking the key port city of Mocimboa da Praia in the north from jihadists, where IS operates under the name of Central Africa Province /2
In last week's issue of al-Naba, IS mocked the coalition against it in Mozambique, primarily referring to Rwandan troops /3
Read 4 tweets

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