NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.
In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.
Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
The only genuinely competitive seat on this map would be Rep. John Katko (R)'s #NY24, who has already proven he can win in a really blue seat.
The thinking here is that he might lose a primary on his right, in which case the new seat would be winnable for a Dem in a general.
The thinking here is that he might lose a primary on his right, in which case the new seat would be winnable for a Dem in a general.
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