OREGON: is gaining a sixth district in 2022, which means all five current districts below will need to shed 117k+ residents to make way for #OR06. A quick thread...
Dems have held a 4-1 seat lead since 1996, and control the redistricting trifecta. But, they also have a geography problem: Oregon's Dems are so clustered in Portland that if you were to draw a map based on compactness alone (below), Rs might have a shot at winning 3/6 seats.
In addition, Oregon has a rare tradition of bipartisan cooperation on maps. Earlier this year, Speaker Tina Kotek (D) struck a deal to give Rs equal power on the state house redistricting committee, though many Ds insist they can still ultimately pass a map w/o GOP support.
Per sources, the prevailing Dem thinking is that the new #OR06 should be awarded to the fastest-growing areas of the state: perhaps in the triangle of Bend (which has seen explosive growth and flipped from Trump '16 to Biden '20), the Portland suburbs and Salem.
In addition, Dems badly want to shore up #OR04 and #OR05, which nearly voted for Trump in '16, in the event Reps. Peter DeFazio (D) and/or Kurt Schrader (D) leave in the next decade or face a pro-GOP election cycle.
This raises the prospect of a deal: in the map below, DeFazio (D) & Schrader (D) would both get shored up by a few points and the new #OR06 would be a "fair fight" district straddling the Cascades (in this version, it would've been Trump +1 in '16 and Biden +7 in '20).
For our full analysis of Oregon (and every other state), be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical. cookpolitical.com/subscribe/why-…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict

19 Aug
OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.

But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
Read 7 tweets
16 Aug
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.

In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.

Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
Read 4 tweets
6 Aug
NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission).

I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread...
First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts.
In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general.
Read 8 tweets
13 Jul
TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+.

The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...
Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left.
Drawing a new 75%+ Biden "vote sink" district in Austin (below) - as well as packing Dem voters into Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's (D) #TX07 in Houston and Rep. Colin Allred's (D) #TX32 in Dallas - could resolve the GOP's immediate problems all around the state.
Read 7 tweets
2 Jul
NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.
However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.
Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats.
Read 8 tweets
30 Jun
Tonight's debacle brings us back to the Bronx mystery. Setting aside the 130k "fake" votes issue, here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '17 mayoral primary by borough:

Queens +78%
Manhattan +71%
Staten Island +71%
Brooklyn +70%
--------------
Bronx +32%
And here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '13 mayoral primary by borough:

Brooklyn +25%
Staten Island +21%
Queens +15%
Manhattan +13%
--------------
Bronx -3%
Keep in mind: these differentials will only widen once Manhattan-heavy absentees are added to the totals.

Altogether, the Bronx is a pretty big statistical outlier here. Given what we've seen from @BOENYC today, I wouldn't rule out a substantial under-reporting error.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(