OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.
But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
However, this approach could backfire: new reform also mandates maps "must not unduly favor or disfavor a party or incumbents," and the fairly moderate Ohio Supreme Court could strike such a lopsided GOP gerrymander down as a brazen violation.
If a court were drawing a neutral plan , it might result in a compact map w/ a more modest 9R-6D breakdown - perhaps w/ new Dem opportunities in Cincinnati, the Columbus burbs and maybe Akron/Canton - even as Youngstown's #OH13 turns red (below).
Long story short: the more aggressive Rs get, the higher the chance their plan backfires in court. They could reduce their risk by, say, sacrificing Rep. Steve Chabot (R) to make #OH01 a safe blue Cincinnati seat.
There are huge stakes & a wide range of possible outcomes here.
There are huge stakes & a wide range of possible outcomes here.
Don't miss our full analysis of redistricting in Ohio (and every other state). Subscribe to @CookPolitical today: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
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