🧭 Another late night for the NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘»

πŸ“ 12 LGAs of concern
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney
πŸ“ Western NSW
πŸ“ Hunter New England
πŸ“ Armidale / Northern Rivers
πŸ“ Mid-North Coast
πŸ“ Southern NSW

1/

πŸ‘ˆ= of note
πŸ‘€= watch closely

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
⚫️ State summary

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

- 12 LGAs of concern: 4755, +590
- Rest of Greater Sydney: 565, +48
- Western NSW: 158*, +25 πŸ‘€
- Hunter New England: 147, +5
- Armidale / Northern Rivers: 4, +0
- Mid-North Coast: 1, +1 πŸ‘ˆ
- Southern NSW: 1, +1 πŸ‘ˆ

2/

*endnote
πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

- 12 LGAs of concern: 3686, +350 πŸ‘€
- Rest of Greater Sydney: 345, +14
- Western NSW: 80, +5
- Hunter New England: 64, +5
- Armidale / Northern Rivers: 1, +0
- Mid-North Coast: 1, +1πŸ‘ˆ
- Southern NSW: 2, +1πŸ‘ˆ

3/
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of concern

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Canterbury-Bankstown: 1073, +115
Cumberland: 913, +138
Blacktown: 776, +111
Penrith: 478, +70
Fairfield: 396, +33
Liverpool: 386, +38
Campbelltown: 222, +27
Parramatta: 209, +27
Bayside: 138, +18
Georges River: 94, +5

4/
Strathfield: 58, +6
Burwood: 12, +2

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

Canterbury-Bankstown: 903, +79 πŸ‘€
Cumberland: 749, +86 πŸ‘€
Blacktown: 520, +70 πŸ‘€
Fairfield: 498, +22
Liverpool: 317, +18
Penrith: 259, +35 πŸ‘€
Parramatta: 164, +19
Campbelltown: 162, +17

5/
Bayside: 36, +6
Strathfield: 36, +0
Georges River: 29, -2
Burwood: 13, +0

6/
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Camden: 70, +7πŸ‘ˆ
No local LGA data: 65, +3
Inner West: 54, +3
Sydney: 52, +8πŸ‘ˆ
Ryde: 43, +3
The Hills Shire: 39, +4
Sutherland Shire: 37, +1
Northern Beaches: 32, +3
Canada Bay: 27, +0
Hawkesbury: 22, +4

7/
Central Coast: 19, +2
Waverley: 19, +1
Randwick: 18, +2
Ku-ring-gai: 17, +0
Blue Mountains: 8, +0
Lane Cove: 8, +0
Shellharbour: 8, +0
Hornsby: 7, +5
Woollahra: 7, +0
Wollondilly: 3, +1
Willoughby: 3, +1
Wollongong: 2, +0
Lithgow: 2, +0
North Sydney: 1, +0

8/
Hunters Hill: 1, +0
Wingecarribee: 1, +0

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

Sydney: 45, +4πŸ‘ˆ
Camden: 44, +4πŸ‘ˆ
No local LGA data: 44, -1
Inner West: 40, +3
The Hills Shire: 29, +4
Canada Bay: 17, +0
Waverley: 15, +1
Sutherland Shire: 15, -2
Ryde: 13, +0

9/
Northern Beaches: 12, +1
Hawkesbury: 10, -4
Randwick: 9, +2
Central Coast: 8, +2
Blue Mountains: 8, -1
Wollondilly: 6, +1
Woollahra: 6, +0
Ku-ring-gai: 6, +0
Wollongong: 5, +0
Shellharbour: 4, +0
Hornsby: 3, +1
Lane Cove: 2, +0
Hunters Hill: 1, +0
North Sydney: 1, +0

10/
Willoughby: 1, +0
Wingecarribee: 1, -1

11/
πŸ“ Western NSW

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Dubbo Regional: 127, +17
Warren: 8, +3
Mid-Western Regional: 5, +2
Walgett: 4, +0
Central Darling (inc. Wilcannia): 3, +0
Bourke: 3, +0
Brewarrina: 2, +2πŸ‘ˆ
Narromine: 2, +0
Bathurst Regional: 1, +1
Orange: 1, +0 (address only)

12/
Broken Hill: 1, +0
Gilgandra: 1, +0

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

Dubbo Regional: 61, +2
Warren: 6, +3πŸ‘ˆ
Central Darling: 3, +0
Mid-Western Regional: 2, +0
Walgett: 2, +0
Broken Hill: 1, +0
Lithgow: 1, +0
Narromine: 1, +0
Orange: 1, +0
Bourke: 1, +0
Gilgandra: 1, +0
πŸ“ Hunter New England

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)

Newcastle: 61, +5
Lake Macquarie: 40, +0
Maitland: 36, +0
Port Stephens: 9, +0
Singleton: 1, +0

14/
πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)

Newcastle: 33, +5
Lake Macquarie: 16, +0
Maitland: 12, +0
Singleton: 1, +0
Port Stephens: 2, +0

15/
πŸ“ Armidale / Northern Rivers

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)
Armidale: 4, +0

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)
Armidale: 1, +0

16/
πŸ“ Mid-North Coast

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)
Kempsey: 1, +1

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)
Kempsey: 1, +1

17/
πŸ“ Southern NSW

🦠 Cases (Last 14 days, +today)
Upper Lachlan Shire: 1, +1

πŸ”Ž Under Investigation (Total, +today)
Upper Lachlan Shire: 1, +1
Goulburn Mulwaree: 1, +0

18/
* Re total number of cases in Western NSW, Deputy Premier said today 167. I can't find that in the data. Please let me know if you see any errors (ping @DanDbab @DeadInLongRun)
A note on this thread - I find this useful to wrap my head around the details and figure it's worth sharing. Please let me know if it's useful to you and how it could be improved? (besides being earlier ... )

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More from @juliette_io

5 Sep
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar πŸ€“
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘» Cases
πŸ‘ = progress
πŸ‘ˆ = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
πŸ“ Western NSW: 582, +31
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 3,+0

πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation - Total, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
πŸ“ Western NSW: 368,+9
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 78,+1
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧡- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6
VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap πŸ‘»

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
πŸ“ Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
πŸ“ Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
29 Aug
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
1/7
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

2/7
3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

3/7
Read 10 tweets

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