So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Q2 – How is the hospitalisation rate calculated?

There are options

(Hate maths? Skip the next 4 tweets)

Surveillance Report calculation =
Total hospitalisations since June 16 / Total cases since June 16
According to The Saturday Paper (TSP), advice to national cabinet calculation =
Ppl needing hospital / Active cases from last week 🧐

This calculation accounts for the lag, so that's good
But we have to assume a couple of things
1. It's referring to people in hospital today
2. It's not using the grossly inflated active cases figure reported by NSW (which takes in 28-30 days of cases) but something more sensible, like a 14-day sum
So if we apply that ...

= Today’s hospitalisations / 14 day sum from 7-11 days ago
= 1030 / 9816 - 11,309
= 9.1% - 10.6%

On Aug 21 (when the surveillance report said 11%)
= 12.3% - 12.8%

TSP reported this calc = 16% but it didn't say when. This calc yields that 3-4 weeks ago
So, it looks like we're in the right neighbourhood

And remember, we're still just talking about hospital in-patients. We haven’t even started on HITH!

So that brings us to Q3 - Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included in the hospitalisation rate?
The Saturday Paper reported the hospitalisation rate cited by the Premier, 5.5%, was one-third the real figure because of 'a decision' to exclude HITH

If that's true, that would mean the hospitalisation rate reported by NSW would be very different from other states, right?
What hospitalisation rate does Victoria report?

In 2020 ...
Total Covid hospitalisations in VIC = 2,492
Total cases = 20,368
= 12.2%

(Sources: /…)
In VIC today ...
Today’s hospitalisations / 14 day sum from 7-11 days ago
= 1030 / 9816 - 11,309
= 11.4% - 14.6%
What would happen to the NSW hospitalisation rate if we did include HITH?

Today, there would be at least 3156 hospitalisations = 34%

Even if national cabinet advisors were using the ridiculously huge denominator of NSW active cases, the rate would be 24%
For the visually-inclined, here's a chart with no percentages, just raw numbers ...

NSW cases = black line
NSW hospitalisations = green dotted line

VIC cases = blue line
VIC hospitalisations = pink dotted line

They look pretty similar, right?
Note, NSW cases haven't peaked yet, so hospitalisations are still catching up

Now let's add HITH (yellow dotted line)

That is crazy high. Way bigger than anything VIC reports
I thought TSP piece raised excellent points about ambulance services

And the clinical questions of whether some HITH patients should be admitted to hospital are way above my pay grade

But should HITH patients be included in the hospitalisation rate? I think the data say no
TSP was right to say 5.5% is absurdly low

But it's not low because it excludes HITH. It's low because it's just plain wrong

The hospitalisation rate for in-patients alone is much higher than that

We now have visibility of this and ways to monitor it
ps. No joke, this thread took me hours to write. It's why I've been off Twitter all weekend! Monster wrap will be back tomorrow👻

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More from @juliette_io

3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap 👻 Cases
👍 = progress
👈 = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
📍 Western NSW: 582, +31
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
📍 Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 3,+0

🔎Under Investigation - Total, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
📍 Western NSW: 368,+9
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
📍 Hunter New England: 78,+1
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap 👻

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
📍 Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
📍 Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
📍 Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days 👍
🔎Under Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
📍 Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
📍 Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
29 Aug
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

Read 10 tweets
27 Aug
🧭 Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap 👻

Watch 👀
Note 👈
Progress 👍

🦠Cases show: Last 14 days, +today
🔎Under Investigation shows: Total, +today

#COVID19nsw #covid19aus
📍 State wrap


12 LGAs of Concern: 7984, +699
Western NSW: 483, +48
Rest of Greater Sydney: 1080, +123
Hunter New England: 85, +1
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 2, +0
🔎Under Investigation

12 LGAs of Concern: 7318, +423
Western NSW: 267, +33
Rest of Greater Sydney: 393, +40
Hunter New England: 68, +2
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Armidale/Northern Rivers: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 1, +0
Read 19 tweets

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