Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap πŸ‘»

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
πŸ“ Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

πŸ“ 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
πŸ“ Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ 12 LOCS:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Cumberland: 2290, +298, +190
Canterbury-Bankstown: 1948,+252,+180
Blacktown: 1467,+156,+116
Liverpool: 852,+112,+75
Fairfield: 769,+84,+58
Penrith: 693,+95,+37
Parramatta: 410,+42,+29
Campbelltown: 364,+47,+28
Bayside: 176,+15,+17
Georges River: 141,+12,+11
Strathfield: 93,+13,+5
Burwood: 19,+0,+0 πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Cumberland: 2173,+228,+179
Canterbury-Bankstown: 1950,+174,+165
Blacktown: 1339,+104,+106
Fairfield: 919,+60,+48
Liverpool: 828,+94,+70
Penrith: 530,+42,+22
Parramatta: 421,+32,+26
Campbelltown: 352,+40,+25
Georges River: 76,+3,+10
Strathfield: 75,+0,+5
Bayside: 72,+-7,+12
Burwood: 21,+0,+0πŸ‘
πŸ“ Western NSW:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Dubbo Regional: 329,+38,+15
Central Darling: 58,+4,+2
Bourke: 30,+7,+1
Orange: 19,+0,+0
Narromine: 13,+1,+2
Warren: 12,+-1,+0
Bathurst Regional: 10,+1,+0
Broken Hill: 9,+-1,+0
Brewarrina: 9,+-1,+1
Mid-Western Regional: 7,+1,+0
Parkes: 7,+0,+0
Gilgandra: 6,+0,+0
Coonamble: 2,+-1,+0
Walgett: 2,+1,+0
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Dubbo Regional: 178,+13,+6
Central Darling: 36,+1,+1
Orange: 16,+0,+0
Bourke: 14,+4,+1
Broken Hill: 9,+0,+0
Narromine: 8,+1,+2
Parkes: 6,+-1,+0
Warren: 6,+0,+0
Bathurst Regional: 5,+-1,+0
Mid-Western Regional: 5,+1,+0
Gilgandra: 5,+-1,+0
Brewarrina: 3,+0,+1
Coonamble: 2,+0,+0
Walgett: 2,+0,+0
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Camden: 162,+22,+7
Sydney: 148,+29,+15 πŸ‘ˆ
Inner West: 120,+14,+8
No local LGA data: 117,+18,+12
Randwick: 109,+11,+8
The Hills Shire: 95,+14,+6
Ryde: 76,+22,+2
Hawkesbury: 73,+4,+4
Canada Bay: 55,+2,+2
Sutherland Shire: 54,+7,+5
Hornsby: 43,+6,+2
Northern Beaches: 30,+5,+2
Blue Mountains: 27,+5,+2
Wollongong: 25,+4,+4
Waverley: 24,+5,+4
Central Coast: 20,+3,+1
Ku-ring-gai: 18,+1,+1
Shellharbour: 17,+5,+5
Lane Cove: 15,+2,+0
Hunters Hill: 15,+0,+2
Wollondilly: 14,+2,+1
Woollahra: 10,+1,+0
Willoughby: 7,+2,+2
North Sydney: 3,+1,+0
Mosman: 3,+2,+0
Kiama: 2,+0,+0
Lithgow: 2,+0,+0
Wingecarribee: 1,+1,+0

πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Camden: 141,+20,+6
Sydney: 117,+18,+15 πŸ‘ˆ
No local LGA data: 111,+15,+12
Inner West: 105,+10,+4
The Hills Shire: 94,+12,+6
Canada Bay: 46,+1,+2
Ryde: 44,+10,+0
Sutherland Shire: 37,+2,+5
Hawkesbury: 35,+3,+4
Randwick: 34,+1,+5
Waverley: 27,+1,+4
Blue Mountains: 22,+1,+0
Hornsby: 18,+2,+0
Northern Beaches: 16,+2,+1
Wollondilly: 16,+0,+1
Wollongong: 12,+0,+0
Woollahra: 12,+1,+0
Central Coast: 12,+1,+1
Ku-ring-gai: 12,+1,+1
Hunters Hill: 7,+0,+1
Lane Cove: 6,+1,+0
Shellharbour: 6,+0,+2
Willoughby: 5,+1,+2
Kiama: 2,+0,+0
Lithgow: 2,+0,+0
Mosman: 2,+2,+0
North Sydney: 2,+0,+0
Wingecarribee: 2,+1,+0
πŸ“ Hunter New England:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Newcastle: 33,+2,+1
Maitland: 20,+4,+0
Lake Macquarie: 10,+0,+0
Cessnock: 6,+1,+0
Port Stephens: 3,+0,+2
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

Newcastle: 37,+2,+0
Maitland: 17,+3,+0
Lake Macquarie: 16,+0,+0
Cessnock: 3,+1,+0
Port Stephens: 1,+0,+0
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)
Kemsey: 2, 0, 0
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)
Kemsey: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Southern NSW:

🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)
Goulburn Mulwaree: 2, 0, 0
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)
Kemsey: 1, 0, 0
πŸ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers:

🦠Cases: 0 last 14 days πŸ‘
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)
Armidale: 1, 0, 0
You might have noticed a bit more restraint with the emojis. In truth, so many things were πŸ‘€ or πŸ‘ˆ to me, the call-outs were meaningless. So I'm now only using yellow signals sparingly to draw your eye ... 1/
Pls feel free to comment with things that should be flagged. Penrith / Camden profiles coming this week.

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More from @juliette_io

5 Sep
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar πŸ€“
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘» Cases
πŸ‘ = progress
πŸ‘ˆ = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
πŸ“ Western NSW: 582, +31
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 3,+0

πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation - Total, +today
πŸ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
πŸ“ Western NSW: 368,+9
πŸ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
πŸ“ Hunter New England: 78,+1
πŸ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
πŸ“ Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
πŸ“ Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧡- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6
VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6
Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
1/7
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

2/7
3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

3/7
Read 10 tweets
27 Aug
🧭 Late-night NSW LGA monster wrap πŸ‘»

Watch πŸ‘€
Note πŸ‘ˆ
Progress πŸ‘

🦠Cases show: Last 14 days, +today
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation shows: Total, +today

#COVID19nsw #covid19aus
πŸ“ State wrap

🦠Cases

12 LGAs of Concern: 7984, +699
Western NSW: 483, +48
Rest of Greater Sydney: 1080, +123
Hunter New England: 85, +1
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 2, +0
πŸ”ŽUnder Investigation

12 LGAs of Concern: 7318, +423
Western NSW: 267, +33
Rest of Greater Sydney: 393, +40
Hunter New England: 68, +2
Mid/North Coast: 2, +0
Armidale/Northern Rivers: 2, +0
Southern NSW: 1, +0
Read 19 tweets

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