Thread by @juliette_io

NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus

Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6

VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6

If NSW used VIC's definition of active cases, it would have a denominator of 11,938, not 17,999

That would mean the hospitalisation rate is 7.3%

At its peak, VIC had 653 people in hospital / 7871 active cases*

That's a hospitalisation rate of 8.3%

4/6

The calc above uses 7-day avg on 12/8/20 (peak avg actives)

At other times the rate seemed much higher, e.g 28/8: 521 / 3145 = 16.6%

But that's because thousands of people had quickly dropped off the actives count, while those in hospital were slower to leave

5/6

So, while it's not perfect, something closer to comparing apples with apples (maybe Pink Lady v Red Delicious) is to at least calculate the denominator in the same way. That gives:

NSW 2nd wave: 7.3%
VIC 2nd wave: 8.3%

The difference (right now) is not as big as we think it is