Why should India be concerned
about a Taliban regime in Kabul ?
After the capture of Kabul by the Taliban, no regional power is more concerned about the prospect of insurgents forming the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan than India 🇮🇳.
Anxieties in New Delhi over the fate of India's regional strategic interests and threats over its national security for the time being are unfolding on two fronts.
Firstly, India is concerned that Afghanistan under the Taliban regime will once again become a sanctuary for anti-India terrorist organizations.
During the last Taliban regime (1996-2001), the Islamist group provided shelter to terrorist formations, including Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba, in order to regroup and conduct insurgent operations in India-administered Kashmir.
New Delhi dreads that the possibility of the Taliban providing shelter to these terrorist groups will increase their willingness to launch cross-border operations in Indian Kashmir despite Indian attempts to discourage such actions through large-scale counter-insurgencies.
Secondly, India fears it has lost momentum in relations with the Taliban. When China 🇨🇳 saw the reality on the ground in Afghanistan 🇦🇫 and received a Taliban delegation in
Beijing to open officiall channels of communication, India 🇮🇳 refused to follow suit.
Russia's decision to not invite India to the Troika Talks held in Qatar🇧🇭, along the US🇺🇸, China 🇨🇳 and Pakistan🇵🇰, could isolate New Delhi in regional talks on the future of Afghanistan🇦🇪. For the Kremlin, Russia and India
are not on the same line when it comes to Afghanistan.
If India was Kabul's largest donor&supported the Ghani administration, Russia sees the Taliban as an asset against ISIS, while perceiving Ghani as just
another USA puppet.The US also wanted to keep India away from negotiations on Afghanistan for fear of not antagonizing Pakistan.
Thirdly, it is the China factor. India fears that the rapprochement between the Taliban and Beijing could lead to a stronger economic and political presence of the People's Republic (an ally of Pakistan) in Afghanistan, to the detriment of India.
Projecting the riverine states, Myanmar🇲🇲, Thailand🇹🇭,
Laos🇱🇦, Vietnam🇻🇳 and Cambodia🇰🇭 directly in the
middle of the conflict between the two superpowers.
The duel bet. Washington and Beijing could take place through their rival institutions: the Western-backed Mekong River Commission(MRC) & the
Chinese-formed Mekong-Lancang Cooperation(LMC) framework which was initiated in 2015 in response to the former which was est. in the 1950
Will Afghanistan once again
become a safe haven for regional terrorism ?
There are two reasons why the Taliban's claim that Afghanistan🇦🇫 now will be different from the one over 20 years ago could be, if not fully, at least partially reasonable.
+
Firstly, the Taliban is unwilling to follow the same mistakes they did
during their first rule (1996-2001), when close relations with al-Qaeda and its hosting on Afghan territory led to the launch of 9/11 terrorist operations followed by the US invasion of Afghanistan.
The Taliban might be extremist, but it is certainly not foolish and much more cautious in consolidating power (for the second time) in the long run.
Secondly, the same promise not to host terrorist groups was made not only to the US, but also to other major regional powers.
When the Afghan president Ashraf Ghani has left ? The country, the proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by the Taliban was nothing but a certainty.
If the Biden administration should be seriously blamed for something, then it should not be the rapid American withdrawal without a strategy to succeed the security
vacuum left behind, but rather the way Washington looked in the other direction....
When Pakistan played a double game for decades, publicly supporting inter-Afghan political reconciliation negotiations, while
hidding its military and intelligence support to the Taliban.
It was always been supporter of Taliban, since it became dumping ground of weapons from USA
Is Biden's withdrawal from the Middle East different from Trump ?
President Biden's announcement to withdraw all US🇺🇸 troops from Afghanistan🇦🇫 by September 1 echoed the vision of his predecessor, Donald Trump.
Moreover, the Democratic president announced in an official meeting held in Washington with the Iraqi🇮🇶;Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, that US forces will end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of the year.