Healthcare systems don't live in a vacuum. When a pandemic is permitted to spiral to the extent that it has in #Florida (in no small part due to mismanagement by poor political "leadership"), the demands placed on hospitals will be felt by other essential infrastructure, too.
On the topic of whether the direness of the current situation could be predicted: this is purely anecdotal, but we were supposed to be in #Florida this past week. We canceled our trip in early August for reasons that are now obvious (yet were regrettably foreseeable, even then).
As more folks get #vaccinated, the % of folks who get sick with #COVID19 & happen to be vaccinated will increase. This is expected (at rates that my team & others are monitoring), & it doesn't mean that #vaccines aren't working; rather, it reflects the realities of probability.
A few of y’all have asked for clarification about the math here. I may get around to doing a more comprehensive thread, but for now, the easiest way to understand this is in the extreme situation where 100% of Population A is vaccinated & a sick person visits from Population B.
Because the vaccines we have aren’t 100% effective, a fraction of Population A is still susceptible when the visitor from Population B comes on by. In such a situation, ~100% of folks who subsequently get sick in Population A (via the sick visitor) will have been vaccinated.
As an introverted (& socially anxious) pandemic responder, it’s been hard for me to maintain social ties with folks beyond my family & colleagues — not because I don’t want to, but because I need time alone to recharge between seemingly endless Slack messages & Zoom meetings. 1/X
Due to the nature of the job, the amount of person-to-person interaction I’ve had professionally since January has been increasingly overwhelming for someone like me... So, by the time virtual trivia night comes around each week, I’m usually too Zoom’d out to join my buddies. 2/X
But here’s the thing: please keep inviting me. Please don’t cancel me & others like me. We love you & care about you, even if every spare minute we have right now is dedicated to trying to recuperate (& to grieve) in between the demands of our professional responsibilities. 3/X
In our study, we find a lack of sufficient evidence for weather-mediated seasonality of #COVID19. 1/X
I’ll let @MauSantillana take the lead on fielding questions about this work, but I wanted to point out two things.
First, I use the term “weather-mediated seasonality” conscientiously. There are a lot of other phenomena that *also* mediate seasonality, like behavior change. 2/X
For example, I don’t doubt that congregating indoors – which will likely happen more often as winter emerges in the U.S. – may very well increase transmission risk in temperate climates.
These issues are extremely important, but they aren't what we’re studying in this paper. 3/X
Recently, I've had a lot of folks ask me whether it'll be possible to safely visit loved ones during the 2020 holiday season. In the US, #COVID19 will likely still be with us then – but "merging bubbles" may be an option (if done responsibly).
Let's discuss what that means. 1/X
The concept of "merging bubbles" involves bringing two or more households together such that they can interact with each other (indoors and in person). In this thread, I'll be offering my own personal views on how to minimize #coronavirus transmission risk while doing this. 2/X
Let me preempt this by saying that the advice I offer today is based off of the best available knowledge at present and is subject to change between now and the holiday season. If it does, I'll be adding an addendum to this thread – so be sure to bookmark and check back then! 3/X
We use machine learning techniques to map the existing #coronavirus literature & identify research needs for #SARSCoV2 (compared to #MERS- & #SARS-CoV here).
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(This study was led by @AnhvinhDoanvo in collaboration with @Money_qxl, @qramjee, @EvolvingEpitope, @angeldesaimd, & myself. It started off as one of our research hackathon projects in late March, & it's been such a delight to oversee its development over the last 11 weeks!)
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Perhaps unsurprisingly to those familiar with scientific funding mechanisms, we find via PCA & LDA that #COVID19 studies (both preprints & peer-reviewed) have primarily been dominated by clinical, modeling, & field-based – as opposed to laboratory-based – research to date.