I've been wanting to look at some relevant data behind the new NSW restrictions

1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern
2. Surveillance testing scrapped
3. Mandatory outdoor masks
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #sydneyprotest
1. Tougher measures in LGAs of concern (includes curfew and 1-hr exercise limit)

A few of us have been trying to show the huge Covid burden in certain communities for a while

Here's a new attempt. This chart shows daily cases in each LGA as a percentage of total cases that day
The big yellow one is Fairfield, Cumberland is purple, Canterbury-Bankstown is green

Below, all 12 LGAs of concern are removed

You can see in the last 5 weeks, they've accounted for about 90% of NSW cases (changed a bit recently - orange top right is Dubbo)
In contrast, here is the same sort of chart for VIC's 2nd wave

The 11 original hotspot LGAs are down the bottom
And here it is with those LGAs removed

It shows VIC's 2nd wave was more dispersed

The original hotspot LGAs made up about 60-70% of cases, and there is more variation in what remains
This is by no means a defence of tougher measures for certain areas

The reason why NSW has *12* LGAs of concern is because Delta rolled from one into the next. Remember when we had just one?

Also, the measures raise Qs that go beyond data. But data's a good place to start
2. Surveillance testing scrapped

This didn't come as a surprise. Here is the % of cases that were notified they were positive within 24 hours of their test. We've been watching it slip. This week it tumbled enough to trigger a change
CHOs said surveillance testing was useful. Without it, maybe we should focus more on how quickly people with symptoms get tested and isolate

This is a hot topic in Victoria, yet barely rates a mention in NSW

Here we can see only about half the cases meet the <1 day target -
3. Mandatory outdoor masks

NSW now has an insurmountable 5,134 cases under investigation

2 months ago, we were all talking about 'fleeting transmission'. Then we stopped

Yesterday the Premier referred to it in the context of the mask requirement

This chart is on a log scale -
4. Permits for authorised workers in LGAs of concern

I'd like to dig into mobility data for this but will have to leave you with a teaser

Thanks to @hughskennedy and @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h, we'll soon be able to visualise the mobility data by LGA produced by @liampearson

Coming soon
As always, keen to hear your thoughts about any of the above

If you want to view the live version of the first chart, it's on the Compare Outbreaks page - covid19data.com.au/compare-outbre…

Click the chart's download button for the percentage data behind it
{Correction}: Some good ppl have made constructive comments re cases under investigation. I shouldn't have connected this so exclusively to issues of masks / 'fleeting transmission'. Masks have in fact been mandatory in LGAs of concern, where most unlinked cases continue to be 🙏

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More from @juliette_io

5 Sep
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds🌱

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
3 Sep
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
1 Sep
🧭NSW LGA monster wrap 👻 Cases
👍 = progress
👈 = big % changes + unlinked cases

⚫️ State wrap

🦠Cases - Last 14 days, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
📍 Western NSW: 582, +31
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
📍 Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 3,+0

🔎Under Investigation - Total, +today
📍 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
📍 Western NSW: 368,+9
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
📍 Hunter New England: 78,+1
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
📍 Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
📍 Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
31 Aug
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short 🧵- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

Read 6 tweets
29 Aug
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

🧭 It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap 👻

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
🦠Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
📍 Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
📍 Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
📍 Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days 👍
🔎Under Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

📍 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
📍 Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
📍 Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
📍 Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
📍 Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
📍 Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
📍 Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
29 Aug
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

Read 10 tweets

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