Thread by @TheCryptoLark

Can #cardano $ada pull a 100X price move from here... realistically?

thread

Note that there is a chance we see a pull back when smart contracts launch. "buy the rumor sell the news" effect.

Some don't think this will happen because SCs are too bullish.

Below staking launch chart

Those on 0 ADA could wait to buy, bag holders be ready for turbulence

But that is just a short term event, and you are not reading this thread for better buying opportunities. We are here to talk moon mission.

So what is a realistic price target for Cardano long term, say end of the decade?

Well a 4X pump would put ADA at the same market cap as Ethereum now = $10 per ADA

10X pump would give ADA same market cap as BTC now = $28 per ada

But let's think beyond simple crypto comparisons.

Apple has a market cap of 2.4 trillion. For ADA to reach this level it would need to see the price do a 25X = $50 per ADA

For reference I see ETH reaching these cap heights (6X higher cap and beyond), although with EIP 1559 in place unit price could go much higher than my original estimates or 15 to 20k a coin.

Currently ADA has no burn mechanism.

But what about 100X? Realistic? No, not in the 2020s at least.

That would be a 9.2 trillion market cap which is 4x larger than all crypto combined right now.

For reference I also don't see Bitcoin or Ethereum doing 100X from here, so I am not singling ADA out. I am just being realistic. IMO targetting the market cap of Apple is a pretty generous target for the end of the decade.

What would Cardano need to pull a 25X?

Market share: Due to lack of smart contracts Cardano lacks market share on all the key metrics. Total value locked in defi 0, daily NFT sale volume tiny, daily transactions 82k, 2 million addresses total.

Ethereum TVL 114 billion, daily NFT over 100 million, daily transactions 1.2 million, 166 million addresses total. Plus first mover advantage and near universal acceptance of ETH and ETH standard tokens on exchanges and in defi.

Cardano has a lot of work to do post launch!

If it was just Ethereum vs Cardano it would be a much clearer battle of platforms. But we also have BSC, Polygon, Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Zillqa, Elrond, Polka Dot, and many others also looking for market share. Many of whom are much futher ahead in terms of ecosystem building.

If Cardano can reach parity in these metrics with ETH and MC follows then this is only a 4X gain from here. How long for ADA to be where ETH is today?

Hardly the 25X to reach Apple status.

To hit this Cardano must go above and beyond.

What does this mean?

Broad adoption, wallets to go from 2 million to around a billion. (country level adoption could help)

Usefulness, daily transactions total amount would need to be at least 5 million I reckon, and value transferred would probably need to hit 100 billion.

Defi TVL a trillion

But is this enough to reach Apple levels of success? What was it that made Apple so successful?

- Products people can't live without and are willing to pay a premium for (ETH has this)
- Easy to use
- Better products (is ADA of Sept better than ETH 2.0, Solana, or others?)

- Apple stayed ahead of the competition
- Steve Jobs (Vitalik, Charles, Gavin)
- Innovation (Iphone / ETH)
- Brand Loyalty (Hard metric in crypto)

Long story short crypto is a new asset class, and long term valuations are tricky especially in a world of infinite inflation.

Can Cardano rise to be Apple of crypto?
Is a 25X price rise possible?
Well we are about to find out!
What do you think?