This chart from Ben Cowen also shows this concept. Either this was shortest lowest ROI cycle ever, or we are heading for our double bubble with a cycle end in early 2022.
Regardless of when exactly it comes the next few months will probably be insane beyond what most of you can imagine, but also one day during all that mania the music will stop.
So here are some tools we can use to spot the top.
The 2 year MA multiplier, every bull run so far has finished above the red line.
Selling anywhere in that zone, particulary 3 to 4 weeks after crossing over was the best time to sell.
The Puell Multiple is another great tool. All previous cycle tops were marked by a spike into the red box. this period usually lasts for a few weeks and selling during this time was a period of max gains.
The BTC Rainbow log chart never once got into sell of maximum bubble territory during the cycle. All other cycles did. This would be the time as the chart shows to sell.
The net unrealized profit loss chart is another great indicator. All previous tops were marked with a cross into Euphoria. This tends to a shorter blow off indicator. When this hits it basically screams time to get out!
Sentiment wise this is also when we see people posting pictures of new cars, watches, etc and saying that this will only go up forever. School friends and uncles will be talking about doge. It's the I'm a genius phase - smart money is selling & not so smart money is buying.
Yes, another bear cycle will come. But that does not mean a repeat of 2018. The crypto market has evolved.
We saw a very similar pattern of volatility across tech stocks in their early years with massive volatility. Then over time market corrections became less severe.
Apple
Institutional money is here, defi is here, gaming, NFTs. Why "cash out"? More money will stay in longer IMO thus creating a high low compared to previous cycles.
Super cycle theories still in play. Bear may be much shorter and shallower.
Central bank insanity continues
But always remember the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
That being said don't fade Metcalfe's law and the rapid expansion of the crypto market user base.
IMO 2020's will be biggest financial opportunity of your lifetime.
Bear is for buying
Final important point! You do not need to perfectly sell the top to get rich in crypto. BUT you do need to sell at some point so make sure you are ready for when this happens. Only a few of coins are long term HODLs. Most I will cash out. Have your escape plan ready.
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I remain very bullish on the Polka $dot $ksm ecosystem.
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So let's talk about parachains.
Kusama has successfully had their first parachain auctions and are now on round two of parachain auctions.
The first 5 parachains resulted in 10% of the supply getting bonded! WOWSERS!!!
The star of round one was Moon River. Even if you had bought the top on KSM you would be up 10X on $movr, most who backed them are up 20 to 100X or more. And the real kicker with parachain auctions.... you get your KSM back at the end! This is solid proof Dotsama is a money maker
Then fund your wallet with a little bit off $sol, for gas, and some usdc from your exchange account like FTX, if your exchange doesn’t allow withdrawals of usdc to solana directly you can buy sol and swap on @RaydiumProtocol
There are lots of great platforms to use on Solana. Since we mentioned @RaydiumProtocol start there and make a swap using that decentralised exchange. Swap some sol for usdc
By the way, keep this all low stress just put in like 100 bucks to play with to your phantom wallet.
Oh and I should note that Solana also has a token burning mechanism which burns a percent of the transaction fees. This is good for long term tokenomics.
Trading your fiat for BTC is exchanging bad money for good. Bitcoin is Gold 2.0 and has essentially become the reserve asset of the crypto markets.
I personally use it as a gold like asset in my crypto portfolio.
DCA into Bitcoin is a great way to get exposure to BTC. Dollars will 100% fall in value. Your BTC will continue to rise versus fiat over time. It is an inflation hedge, store of value, and still in price discovery