Anil K Sood Profile picture
Aug 31, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read Read on X
GDP Data: Looking back to see where we are!
Lot of ground to cover?

1. GDP is less than 2018-19. Higher by 2.39% from 2017-18. Nearly Static over 4 years.
2. PFCE is less than 2017-18. Consumers, the biggest contributors are struggling.

@SahilKapoor @dugalira @CafeEconomics
3. Govt. Final Cons Exp up by a CAGR of 3.75% over 4 years. Less than last year.

4. GFCF is less than 2018-19. CAGR of 0.82% over 4 years.
5. Inventory significantly less than 2018-19. Does it say something about business confidence?

6. Always lumpy. But not a great picture. Last quarter was one of the best. This is one of the two worst quarters in 4 years.
My biggest worry is: Are we in structurally slow state?

#India #GDP #GDPgrowth
Exports are doing well. CAGR is 4.95% - Not bad at all as the global economy is is going through a tough phase.
Imports are growing too. CAGR of 1.67%. Net Exports bring about a +ve impact on GDP.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Anil K Sood

Anil K Sood Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AnilKSood5

Jun 13, 2023
#Inflation in #India
1. While general level at 4.3% for May is close to the target, it is closer to 5% for all sub-groups other than Food & Beverages (3.2% in May).
2. It implies that core inflation is now within the target range, though > target of 4%. Image
3. Groups where pricing power is with producer show higher inflation (health, education, clothing & footwear, personal care, etc.)
4. Inflation for transport & communications is low, as the gov. & telecom industry is not exercising their PP in view of elections, as reported. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 22, 2023
Today's conversation about Indonesia, Brazil & India reminded me of an article of Dec'22. It is born out of Shishir (@shishir1969) & my conversation.

ideassansideology.org/3867-2/

@Revhappy2 @hakuna060 @Sabya_K @sunithanatti
@CafeEconomics @andymukherjee70 @sritara @ramakumarr
1. India must grow at a higher pace, as it still houses one of the largest populations of poor people in the world, which can happen only if it increases its share of global value-added – a strategy that all large countries have used during last 50 years. Image
2. One of the most important strategies for building a high-growth resilient economy involves creating technology-based products and services for a global market, as has been demonstrated by the US, Germany, Japan and now China.
Read 26 tweets
Apr 20, 2023
We argue that fiscal consolidation must wait for #India to avoid being trapped in a prolonged slow #economicgrowth trap.
@sunithanatti @NewIndianXpress

newindianexpress.com/web-only/2023/…
1. Household earnings drive consumption and investment and the savings provide the required risk-capital for businesses. Unless real earnings and savings rise, GDP growth rate will barely move an inch.
2. The growth in real wages and salaries has either been stagnant or negative for most workers, including entry-level white-collar workers.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 22, 2021
My #MentalModel for assessing India's Market Size
Inspired to share in view of discussion on Ford's exit.
livemint.com/auto-news/the-…

@andymukherjee70 @SahilKapoor @ramakumarr @CafeEconomics @sritara @rishikesha

1. India is low middle-income country with large inequality: Chart Data Source: WID.World, accessed on Sep 14, 2021
2. Urban India generates 70-75% of GDP. business-standard.com/article/news-c….
3. If I create population-income groups, I get to know that Top 1% of earners have developed country per capita.
4. Middle India's Per Capita is < USD 1,500 or ~100K pa - HH income of < 500K pa
5. Bottom half earns < USD 500 per annum.

6. Cost of living in India metros (Mumbai, NCR, Bangalore) is close to upper-income countries, adjusted for purchasing power.
Read 17 tweets
Aug 26, 2021
#NMP #Financing #infrastructure
In current situation, we run the 'risk of mispricing risk, even for de-risked assets'.
Why: It is not easy to estimate cash flows from infrastructure assets in an uncertain environment with limited clarity about eco policy and potential growth?
I would host these assets in NIIF & do a Public issue for raising finance, so that the Indian public shares the upside, as they are ones who have been bearing the risk all these years. We need Indian HHs to start providing risk cap, if India has to grow.
We can use banking system or the shadow banking systems where we have debt bearing the cost of risk and uncertainty, arising our poor policy choices and business decision.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 12, 2021
#Leadership in a Growth-constrained, Information-Age #Economy
Reflecting on conversations 2018 Conclave where business & academic leaders had shared their insights on the constraints that global & the #Indian economy faces & possible solutions.
ideassansideology.org/engagements/le…
2. Demand was identified as the constraint on growth and wage/earnings growth was considered to be the solution. Pandemic has made it worse. But solution is still in growth in earnings - now more than ever.
3. At the end of the day, government is not spending, industry is not spending, and the individuals are not able to spend, and therefore growth is constrained.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(