1/
I looked up Equity #ETFs with #ESG in their description using the Bloomberg function, "ETF"

$334bn in total AUM

Wow, investors are hungry for this

so took a “deep dive” into the largest - $22bn iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA
2/
“composed of U.S. companies that have positive environmental, social & governance characteristics as identified by the index provider”

“.. that applies the following business involvement screens:

civilian firearms, controversial weapons, tobacco, thermal coal and oil sands”
3/
Seems clear

First up, Tobacco

WHO says it kills 8m / yr

And I detest smoking – this is easy

I also hate guns, will never own one

But how many people do firearms kill?

Amnesty Intl, - 1.4m firearm-related deaths globally between 2012 & 2016
4/
So is ~350k of annual deaths the cutoff?

Because how many does Alcohol kill?

WHO – 3m

Any alcohol firms in this ETF?

I know the large ones (ABI, Diageo) are European

Scroll down, spot Brown-Forman & Molson Coors

But I do see lots of retailers & they sell alcohol,
5/
maybe some sell guns

I wonder where you draw the line?

But while scrolling I notice Coca-Cola, Pepsi, McDonald's, Kellogg & Starbucks all in the top 100

Hang on, a Grande Starbucks Caramel Brulee Latte with whole milk is 390 calories

That’s flatulent cows + sugar
6/
What’s obesity’s hit rate?

2.8m

Now I’m confused

So, guns at 350k p/a is bad

but fast food, sugary drinks & alcohol at 5.8m is fine?

Why, because they kill you slowly, whereas guns kill you fast?

And I see McDonald's, so what about the meat & fish they sell,
7/
haven't they seen #cowspiracy & #Seaspiracy?

It can’t be Social because I spotted Nike on the list & Amazon isn’t unionised

So it must be Environmental

Back to the top

Apple is the largest holding so I looked up their Environmental Progress Report and see they generated
8/
22.6MMT (million metric tons) of CO2 equivalent per year

Huh, I thought California was sunny - solar?

Of course, this also excludes all the power used by their devices once sold

so how does that differ from the fuel we burn, once sold by the oil majors?

Microsoft #2
9/
Fuzzy chart but looks like 11 MMT

And there’s the device user issue again

Amazon #3

But don’t they own~ 80 aircraft + 30k trucks + 20k trailers?

61MMT

What?

61 million metric tons of CO2

From the 3rd largest holding in the World’s largest ESG Aware fund
10/
Imagine an Unaware fund!

Clearly, market-cap-weighted, not ESG friendly scale weighted…

How much does an airline emit?

Delta in 2019 (pre covid)

40MMT

What position are they in the ETF?

Can’t find them

But I do see UPS 38 MMT

Oh there’s ExxonMobil 120MMT

Enough!
11/
I see no logic to this whatsoever so I’m just going to say it:

I think this ETF ESG investing is complete & utter nonsense

A dishonest sales idea trying to capitalise on our climate emergency

Worse -people now think they’ve “done their bit” because they’re in an “ESG fund”
12/

You haven’t

Help the planet properly & stop wasting your time with this rubbish

#investing

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More from @SeanPeche

1 Sep
1/
Imagine I told you in early June that $100 invested in an old discarded coal company would be worth $286,

while $100 invested in a Chinese darling, BABA & Tencent, both rated “BUY” by over 90% of analysts & forecast to grow earnings forever & beyond,

would fall to $77 & $ 81
2/
In 3 months

I think you may have sent me a get-well-soon card and muttered

“some people just don’t want to get it”

Is there a lesson in here?

Yes, it reminds us that the future is unpredictable

Which means the common narrative might not play out
3/
No matter how common

Be it:

Growth is Great

or

ESG is Everything

or

Inflation is Transitory

or

Passives not Actives

So what do I do?

Be diversified

Don’t bet on one strategy and

Ensure there’s a margin of safety
Read 12 tweets
26 Aug
1/
Can I tell you about a company that grew Adjusted EBITDA 8x in H1 & is below 3x earnings?

Grew? I thought you were a Value guy

I am

And we want growth

we just don’t want to pay too much for it

What’s with the EBITDA reference, I thought you don’t like that metric?
2/
I don’t really

Because companies with a huge & unaffordable interest bill can look great with Earnings BEFORE Interest…

They just look shoddy afterwards

But I look at EBITDA because it shows me a different angle

Like looking at yourself in the mirror at various angles
3/
although I do that less these days..

I just don’t STOP at EBITDA

Because it's like stopping at a good looking Cash Flow number

but not noticing it’s due to lower inventory – you can’t cut inventory forever

Or stopping at the Cash on the Balance Sheet

but not spotting
Read 11 tweets
23 Aug
1/

In 2001, I arrived in the UK eager to look at leading global companies

One was GE, led by the late Jack Welch, who had just published a book, “Jack: Straight from the gut” about his “career running one of the largest and most successful corporations”

The stock sold at
2/

15x earnings - seemed fair value for a “wonderful business run by brilliant management"

Cash from operating activities of $32bn less capex for equipment of $15bn = free cash flow of $16bn

(although we didn’t talk about free cash flow back then)

ROE was 27%
3/

And a payout ratio of 50%

I could use the historic EPS trajectory as a ruler – linear growth of 15% p/a and on track for $11 per share

maybe there was something to this Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) formula

But then I looked at the balance sheet
Read 12 tweets
3 Aug
1/

If you’ve spent recent days trying to guess the moves of Chinese Govt, you may have missed Australia’s largest-ever deal

US$29bn

No, no one acquired Newcrest, one of the world’s largest gold miners at a 70% premium

Square bought, “Buy now, pay later” company, Afterpay AP
2/

They must have some unique technology

No, but they do have a great Vision

“Fairness and Financial Freedom for all”

and Visions aren’t cheap

Well I value Fairness & Freedom

But does Square get anything else for $29bn?

They get 4 values:

Keep it real

Do the right thing
3/

Be brave

Shape the future”

AP advertises:

“No external credit checks, no interest, no fees - when you pay on time, no surprises & our customers love us for it”

Well, no one wants surprises right now, least of all Chinese tech investors - their nerves are shattered
Read 11 tweets
28 Jul
(thread)

In October 2003, one of the World’s wealthiest men flew home in his Gulfstream

As he disembarked, he was arrested at gunpoint, sent to a remote prison beyond reach of journalists, charged with tax evasion, & spent the next 10 yrs in a Siberian gulag

He is
2/

Mikhail Khodorkovsky (MK), the CEO of Yukos, one of the world’s largest oil companies at the time

But unfortunately for MK & Yukos, this wasn’t a televised Olympic Judo contest where a neck lock ends with a double tap

This was an: out of sight, zero-rules, cage fight
3/

against an angry, Russian Bear

With only one winner

the Bear

who levied $30bn of tax charges against Yukos,

disembowelled their key assets at rigged auctions,

& left MK & his foreign shareholders with "nada"

There was never any tax evasion

because when it was all over,
Read 12 tweets
26 Jul
1/

Let me tell you a story about a company whose share price has risen 50x since 1999

Compound growth of 19% for 21.5 years

Wow, a tech company?

No, a retailer

on-line?

No

Well, then they must have opened lots of stores?

At a rate of 4% per annum so 3x the store base,
2/

not 50x

So they’ve increased sales in each store?

barely changed +1.5% CAGR

Ok, a massive increase in profitability per store?

Some – grown at +4% CAGR – increased efficiencies & operating leverage of spreading the fixed costs across more stores

Still doesn’t
3/

explain the 50x growth in share price

oh I know, the share has rerated massively from a low PE to a high PE

No, gone the other way from 20x to 18x

I give up how did the share price go up 50x?

Here's a clue

Because EPS went up 55x

But you said they didn’t grow massively,
Read 11 tweets

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