Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. #Afghanistan: The war in #Panjshir and the propaganda war continue. First, the #Taliban are not running the show in Kabul. Pakistani ISI is in charge and seeking to reap the benefits of their massive victory over the US @CIA and @DefenseIntel @NSAGov and @ODNIgov who have all

2. fallen for what was essentially a virtual war. Massive propaganda pushed though seemingly valid #OSINT accounts that caused a massive rout. I knew the rout was coming, but didn't spot the Pak control of the assault until late in the game. Now that the Paks are facing

3. a committed, capable force in Panjshir the reality of the ground war is starting to impair the move to annex Afghanistan that is the de facto result of the Pak invasion. The reports of the Kabul airport being open are not credible. The photos are taken to obscure the location

4. and a review of the past 48 hours of air traffic coming into #Kabul shows only one aircraft that was likely the Pak ISI head's plane and a possible Qatari plane that may have gone to #Kandahar.

5. It appears that the General Faiz Hamid left Kabul to attend a meeting in #Rawalpindi that that was likely attended by #Turkish military as two TAF planes arrived there at same time. My analysis of the ground situation in Panjshir leads me

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6. to conclude that the Paks realize that air power is needed to break the #PanjshirResistance and the Turks are likely to supply the drones. That gives Pak terrorist chief #Faiz deniability and the infiltration of the Turkish intelligence service in the US DOD, IC and @StateDept

7. will provide the Turks the cover needed to operate with impunity in Afghanistan. But drones should be appearing soon. The #PanjshirResistance forces need anti-drone capability. Most Turkish drones fly within range of US #Stingers and #PanjshirResistance know how to use them.