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Sep 7, 2021 11 tweets 9 min read Read on X
If you are at #RSS2021Conf this morning, check out our invited session on Contagious disease #statistics and #misinterpretation of #COVID dynamics and data with @AdamJKucharski and @AyisSalma
11:40am, Exchange 10
First speaker is @AyisSalma, reflecting on the subtle but important difference of what we think and what data are.
#COVID19 statistics are easily misinterpreted Image
Statistical anomalies in calculations of #COVID19 infections and deaths meant it appeared that no-one ever recovered!
And these figures influenced government #publichealth decisions Image
The choice of denominator (population or subset of the population) is very important in #COVID19 research.
Confounding and collider bias impacting on estimates must also be considered Image
Can your #ArtificialIntelligence differentiate #cats 😸 from #COVID19?
Not always it seems!
deepai.org/publication/ca… Image
The second speaker is @AdamJKucharski on Making sense of #pandemic dynamics Image
Observed data are not very useful in epidemics. Data are incomplete, out of date, and often #biased.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but what can be done in real time? Image
Early methods included sequential #montecarlo modelling of the R statistic and infection rates.
But the estimate depends on the data source and must be interpreted in terms of data lag and under reporting ImageImage
Scenarios can be modelled using a range of data sources and assumptions.
But it is it essential to #communicate the difference between #forecasts and #scenarios
❓What WILL happen vs what COULD happen? ImageImage
Estimating R requires:
- Duration ⏳
- Opportunities 🤝
- Transition probability 🎲
- Susceptibility 🤒
But which data sources to use? And what really drives R? Image
Final reflections we can all agree with!
Modelling outbreaks and pandemics needs to be:
- Fast ⏩⏰
- Open 🧐
- Peer-reviewed 📖🤓
- Collaborative 🤝👫 ImageImage

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More from @RSSMedSection

Sep 8, 2021
Attending #RSS2021Conf this afternoon? @RSSAnnualConf
Check out our invited session with @RSS_IDS @ISEG_LSHTM on addressing statistical and epidemiological issues in global heath.
Auditorium and livestreamed online
The first speaker is Emily Webb, speaking about @ISEG_LSHTM and recent work of the group
Work of @ISEG_LSHTM also involves capacity building at research institutes in lower middle income countries and there will be a 50th anniversary symposium next year celebrating the next generation of statisticians and epidemiologists in global research! 🥳
Read 9 tweets
Sep 8, 2021
Attending #RSS2021Conf this morning?
Check out our Professional Development session on peer reviewing for clinical journals
10:50am, Exchange 11 and online
@I_M_Stratton @ebhcmedstats @MonaKanaan3 @CateyBunce @sjn_16 @RSSAnnualConf
Starting now! Our first speaker is @I_M_Stratton, reflecting on her passion for peer reviewing for clinical journals and the inspiration for this session
Next, our #Medical section chair @MonaKanaan3 sharing some real peer review comments she has received. How dare she use so many complicated statistics?! 🤯
Read 11 tweets

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