#BTC #bulls have a much stronger thesis than the #BTC #bears. Bulls have solid data driven analysis confirming trends in real time. Bears are using technical charts that ignore Onchain conditions with little to no acknowledgement of what’s happening on the network.

I would like to make it clear, I acknowledge the #BTC #bear case, and it’s possible, but the current #bullish trending Onchain data, fundamental strength, and improving technicals make the bear case weak and less likely to occur.
The bears calling for a bull trap have almost no data driven analysis to back up their claims. Long term holders and entities holding older coins (which is majority of supply) are not selling, but are accumulating and holding. Yes they can sell, but we aren’t seeing that.
For the bears to be validated, we have to see long term holders, entities holding older coins, and large miners start dumping massive amounts of #BTC at once and start a selling trend Onchain.
This is not happening, as all these cohorts continue to #HODL and accumulate dips. The UTXO Age Distribution metric confirmed older coins were not sold during the 53k to 42.8k pullback. Instead, 3 to 6 month cohorts who bought between 50k to 64.8k panic sold the lows.
The problem with the bear thesis is the technical charts used mostly captured bull traps during bear markets where long term holders were dumping on rallies, forming lower highs and rejections at key resistance levels. Additionally aSOPR and LTH SOPR were below 1 (at loss).
During the May 2021 liquidation event where #BTC fell 55%, LTH SOPR remained above 1 the entire time, another data point showing this is not a bear market. @gaah_im
As @WClementeIII repeatedly mentions, this is known as whale exit liquidity, where whales holding older coins dump massive amounts of #BTC during bear market rallies causing Spent Output Age Bands spiking and forming a trending of selling.
Although there was a recent spike in Spent Output Age Bands, it never turned into a trend, and fell back down. This directly correlates with older coins recently taking minor profit between 42k and 50k, then going back to accumulation.
This 19% has not impacted older coins and long term holders, they simply bought the dip while weak hands sold.
As of now, the Onchain data strongly suggests there are no signs of whale exit liquidity. Miners holding 1.84 million #BTC, LTHs, and older coins continue to hold (these entities hold majority of total #BTC supply).
I will not always be correct. I am open to having my #bull thesis invalidated only if the data confirms a bearish trend Onchain is forming, and technicals reach an invalidation point.
My #bull case will be invalidated if long term holders, large entities holding older coins, and large miners all sell at the same time forming a bearish Onchain trend of selling, along with price falling back below the 30k to 40k trading range.
This is possible and I remain open to this scenario as there is no 100% certainty in the markets.
I remain #bullish as long as the fundamentals, technicals, Onchain metrics, and momentum continue to show a #bullish trend for #BTC.
Trying to keep this thread quick and to the point: the #bull case is much strong than the #bear case simply because the Onchain data continues to show a bullish trend.
If all cohorts are in strong accumulation, Spot Exchange reserves are at multi year lows, and the majority of supply is held by entities who don’t want to sell at current prices, when the next wave of demand comes, price is likely to rise significantly.
Regardless of this pullback, I remain #bullish on #BTC and strongly believe, based on the data that #BTC remains in a #bull market, and this is just a shake out on the way to new all times highs.
Maybe the #bears will be right. Probably after the #bull market top. 😊

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More from @DanielJoe916

8 Sep
#BTC #bears can draw all the technical fractals they want. But one trend remains: LTHs are HODLing, Miners in aggregate continue to net accumulate, LTHs remain in profit, and cohorts older than 12 months have not sold this dip.
These cohorts all need to sell massive amounts of #BTC and start a trend of selling Onchain in order for BTC to start a bear market.

As of now, the trend shows continuing accumulation and HODLing.
Yesterday #BTC miners sold 2833 BTC. This is nothing compared to the nearly 40,000 they sold in one day in late 2020. This entire year, miners reserves have been slowly trending higher. They hold 1.847 million BTC, the recent peak was 1.85 million.
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
The next 2 to 3 weeks for #BTC are going to be the most critical in determining bull market continuation. Here I explain the exact technical and Onchain confirmations I would like to see for bull market continuation.

The first big step for #BTC is making a strong weekly close above the 21 week and 200 day MA. This will flash a very bullish technical buy signal, potentially causing a wave of capital to enter the market.
More importantly, after the first weekly close above major resistance at the 21 week and 200 day, we need to see follow through higher for the next 2 weeks, ideally breaking above 47k to 50k and entering the golden fib zone between 51.1k to 57.1k.
Read 21 tweets
12 Aug
Here is PART 2 of my #BTC Price Target Series. This is my #BULL CASE price target for this #bullmarket. My targets are time based and condition based, while blending multiple forms of analysis. All opinions are my own, I am not factoring in other people’s price targets.

Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. With that said, let’s jump in.
In order for #BTC to enter my #BULL CASE, we need to avoid seeing large selling pressure from long term holders, large miners, and entities holding illiquid supply especially if price is testing 100k. Low signs of selling pressure form these entities at 100k and ideal technical..
Read 14 tweets
11 Aug
As promised, here is PART 1 of my }#BTC price target thread. This thread is for my BASE CASE price target for #BTC on this #bull market. It is a time based, condition based target, which blends multiple forms of analysis. Think of it as a moving target.

Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am keeping my proprietary methods private, as I have spent years researching and refining my analysis. Thank you for understanding. With that said, let’s jump in.
I use a variety of technical indicators and have my own proprietary methods to chart out highly confluent technical targets to the upside. I also apply sentiment indicators and onchain to help identify signals of euphoria and incoming selling pressure.
Read 12 tweets
11 Aug
Quick update on my thoughts on the third largest #BTC whale wallet. The lack of activity further suggests the recent selling is more likely to do with breaking even or realizing small gains on blocks of #BTC acquired in the upper 30s to low 40s.
This 🐳 lightly accumulated 753 #BTC starting at 50k on May 15th, at the start of the huge pullback. Additional purchases were made at 44.7k, 44.1k, with large buys going all the way down to 29.6k.
As #BTC continues the breakout attempt, I expect this 🐳 to sell small amounts of BTC especially if price approaches its cost basis for certain blocks at 50k.
Read 9 tweets
10 Aug
Here’s 3 charts showing near term relative performance of #BTC to the SPX, Gold, and the Dollar. #BTC is showing signs of strength when comparing recent performance.

During the multi month #BTC consolidation, the SPX continue higher while #BTC underperformed. There was a large divergence forming between the SPX and #BTC. BTC staged an impressive breakout and has been significantly outperforming the SPX. Image
#BTC and gold’s recent price action show strong inverse correlation. It’s very interesting to see Gold drop significantly on a weekend, and #BTC push significantly higher on the same day. Image
Read 8 tweets

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