Thought I'd check how much COM Presidents have actually talked about Brexit in #SOTEU, following VdL's complete silence yesterday
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Yes, this is the first #SOTEU that has unambiguously avoided the topic since 2013 (note, no speeches in 2014 or 2019), but 2016 also made no direct reference (although certainly can read entire content that year as repost to #EURef)
2/
2015 was easily the longest absolute text, reaffirming value of UK membership
2017 was very passing
2018 & 20 were about need to conclude negotiations
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So is Brexit not an issue any more?
Not at all. #SOTEU has always been more about structural issues raised for EU structure and operation: Brexit wasn't just/even about the UK in that regard
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However, UK isn't a critical partner in COM's global vision, which suggests indifference (on both sides) is likely to be the major barrier to improving the current situation
/end
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tl;dr the UK isn't credibly able to pursue this option, but that doesn't seem to stop its periodic reappearance
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Today's variant is essentially the same, but instead of you being the madman, someone else is, and you're trying to use that to leverage concessions from your counterpart
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So #UACES2021 is a wrap. Another excellent demonstration of the strength of European Studies and convening power of @UACES (plus of what a lovely bunch of people you all are)
Huge thanks to UACES office for their hard work to make this all happen, @emlinne, Melina & Emma
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The end of #UACES2021 also means I take up my role as @UACES Chair. @NicholasStartin has been a model of leadership and collegiality during an even-more-than-expected period of disruption and I hope to build on his many good works
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.@UACES has always been my 'home' association and it's always been a place of support and encouragement and I look forward to making sure that continues for all our members, alongside my fellow officers @JocelynMawdsley@DrKathrynSimps@RGuerrina
3/
I'm going to go through this once again, today mainly because 'we didn't realise how the Northern Ireland Protocol would work in practice' is no grounds for trying to get out of your treaty commitments
Two options for Frost today: present a new plan for NI Protocol, or repeat old lines
So how would those play out?
1/
New plan is unlikely to fly, mainly because the ground has been very thoroughly worked over during the past 4-5 years
But let's imagine someone's had a bright idea
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A necessary precondition for that new plan would be to show how it ensures all EU needs are met at least as well as now. Otherwise it's a non-starter
3/
Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue