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Daniel Joe Profile picture
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19 Sep, 4 tweets, 3 min read
I am #bullish on #BTC because the overall trend in fundamentals and Onchain remain firmly bullish.

There are points of #bull market invalidation for Onchain and technicals. It will require LTHs, large miners, and older coins to start a trend of selling to invalidate the bull...
Thesis. #BTC will have to close below the 21 week, 21 week EMA, 200 day, and 41.3k, to invalidate technical structure and trend.

If we get a stock market crash and the Onchain and technicals reach invalidation points, then the bull market will be finished.
As of now, the Onchain and technicals are no where close to invalidating the bull market, so I remain #bullish.

Anything is possible, so we have to be ready for all scenarios.
I am macro #bullish on #BTC looking out this decade from a fundamental view. I think #Bitcoin is the best store of value and the hardest asset in the world. Would rather hold #BTC for the decade than sit on cash.

Long #BTC

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More from @DanielJoe916

Daniel Joe Profile picture
19 Sep
Important to focus on the 1 to 3 month, 3 to 6 month, and 6 to 12 month #BTC cohorts for the next few months. As these groups age, their cost basis will start pushing into the 30k to 40k accumulation zones. 6 to 12 month cohort is #HODLing strong.
Good to see 1 to 3 month cohort starting to increase as the buyers added between 30k to 48k. 3 to 6 month is slowly aging into the 30k to 40k, still capturing 50k to 64.8k areas. Important to see this group hold steady in the next few months.
Distribution from coins significantly older than 12 months is expected as price increases, especially if #BTC makes new all time highs. LTHs and Miners are expected to distribute as prices increases. Will be watching the rate of distribution especially if price goes parabolic.
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Joe Profile picture
9 Sep
#BTC #bulls have a much stronger thesis than the #BTC #bears. Bulls have solid data driven analysis confirming trends in real time. Bears are using technical charts that ignore Onchain conditions with little to no acknowledgement of what’s happening on the network.

THREAD TIME:
I would like to make it clear, I acknowledge the #BTC #bear case, and it’s possible, but the current #bullish trending Onchain data, fundamental strength, and improving technicals make the bear case weak and less likely to occur.
The bears calling for a bull trap have almost no data driven analysis to back up their claims. Long term holders and entities holding older coins (which is majority of supply) are not selling, but are accumulating and holding. Yes they can sell, but we aren’t seeing that.
Read 19 tweets
Daniel Joe Profile picture
8 Sep
#BTC #bears can draw all the technical fractals they want. But one trend remains: LTHs are HODLing, Miners in aggregate continue to net accumulate, LTHs remain in profit, and cohorts older than 12 months have not sold this dip.
These cohorts all need to sell massive amounts of #BTC and start a trend of selling Onchain in order for BTC to start a bear market.

As of now, the trend shows continuing accumulation and HODLing.
Yesterday #BTC miners sold 2833 BTC. This is nothing compared to the nearly 40,000 they sold in one day in late 2020. This entire year, miners reserves have been slowly trending higher. They hold 1.847 million BTC, the recent peak was 1.85 million.
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Joe Profile picture
13 Aug
The next 2 to 3 weeks for #BTC are going to be the most critical in determining bull market continuation. Here I explain the exact technical and Onchain confirmations I would like to see for bull market continuation.

Thread
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The first big step for #BTC is making a strong weekly close above the 21 week and 200 day MA. This will flash a very bullish technical buy signal, potentially causing a wave of capital to enter the market.
More importantly, after the first weekly close above major resistance at the 21 week and 200 day, we need to see follow through higher for the next 2 weeks, ideally breaking above 47k to 50k and entering the golden fib zone between 51.1k to 57.1k.
Read 21 tweets
Daniel Joe Profile picture
12 Aug
Here is PART 2 of my #BTC Price Target Series. This is my #BULL CASE price target for this #bullmarket. My targets are time based and condition based, while blending multiple forms of analysis. All opinions are my own, I am not factoring in other people’s price targets.

Thread
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. With that said, let’s jump in.
In order for #BTC to enter my #BULL CASE, we need to avoid seeing large selling pressure from long term holders, large miners, and entities holding illiquid supply especially if price is testing 100k. Low signs of selling pressure form these entities at 100k and ideal technical..
Read 14 tweets
Daniel Joe Profile picture
11 Aug
As promised, here is PART 1 of my }#BTC price target thread. This thread is for my BASE CASE price target for #BTC on this #bull market. It is a time based, condition based target, which blends multiple forms of analysis. Think of it as a moving target.

Thread:
👇👇👇
Disclosure: this is my opinion. This is not financial advice, DYOR. I am keeping my proprietary methods private, as I have spent years researching and refining my analysis. Thank you for understanding. With that said, let’s jump in.
I use a variety of technical indicators and have my own proprietary methods to chart out highly confluent technical targets to the upside. I also apply sentiment indicators and onchain to help identify signals of euphoria and incoming selling pressure.
Read 12 tweets

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