Thread by @Usherwood

Since we seem to be having more serious talk about using Art.16, let's just explore how that might work and why it's very unlikely to solve anything

1/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1434810766914379776

Remember that Art.16 is designed to deal with temporary situations, so it can't be a permanent tool (we'll leave the review and cross-linkage aspects for now), so essentially UK can use it only 2 purposes:
- easing pressure on NI
- raising pressure on EU to renegotiate

2/

On easing pressure,l on NI, the only limit to disapplication of Protocol is that which is under UK control (ie can't stop EU doing what they do)

That means - at most - full disapplication w/in NI/rUK

3/

(Again, let's ignore lesser steps for now, esp in light of second aim)

4/

Disapplication of this kind would remove all checks between NI/rUK and all export checks w/in NI

Great for NI exporters and intra UK traders, but...

5/

Borders sadly have two sides, so checks on EU side a possibility (pace GFA), plus NI would no longer be (legally) aligned w EU regulation in Protocol domains, so EU could argue products are not verifiably compliant and halt trade

6/

(This is addition to be Art.16 reviewing, the resumed legal cases, and the general bus-crashing BTW)

7/

So disapplication might helps some aspects of NI economy, but with major downside of huge disruption to N-S trade and supply

So Art.16 doesn't much help NI

8/

But maybe that doesn't matter if it gets EU to table to find a new solution

Let's recap here

9/

I know some only discovered the Irish issue rather later in the Art.50 day, but it was a central (maybe THE central) focus of negotiation from very early on in the withdrawal process, from 2017 onwards

10/

Old hands might recall such buzzwords as 'joint report', 'alternative arrangements', 'maxfac', 'Chequers' and more

All about NI

11/

Every possible way of trying to handle the commitments under Good Friday, UK and EU territorial integrity has been gone over, again and again and again

And the Protocol was the outcome

12/

It's not a great outcome, because everyone has to wear some costs, but it's less worse than any of the other options

That was true in 2019, and it's still true now

13/

So even if EU were minded to renegotiate, what could it possibly renegotiate to?

Have yet to see any model that improves UK/NI outcomes that is also consistent with EU legal order

14/

Tl;dr of using Art.16 is that it wouldn't unambiguously help NI trade, it doesn't provide a better alternative to Protocol and it would totally ruin what's left of UK-EU relations

(Would make AUKUS row seem trifling though)

/end