Rains over the #HornOfAfrica are back to monsoon level, and the heavier rains are forecast to remain for at least a fortnight.

This week's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow.
Today's forecasts big picture is of the view from above of North Africa, The Middle East, The Horn of Africa India and southern parts of Europe and Central Asia.

Ethiopia's @DemekeHasen has just started speaking to the #UNGA on behalf of the peoples of Ethiopia. Image
Here's a picture of Ethiopia's Deputy PM and Foreign Affairs Minister @DemekeHasen. Image
You can watch the video of his address here >>
Here's a picture of the Ethiopian delegation. Image
#UNGA #UNGAEthiopiaCrisis

Well that statement from @DemekeHassan was great. Concise, clear and dignified. I hope it was heard.

Now, back to the rain. Here's a picture of North Africa from this evening. Note the pattern of rain extending deep into the deserts of Sudan and KSA. Image
Here we have four model forecasts for the next 10 days of rain. Rain is forecast over the Sahel and nearly all of the #HornOfAfrica during this period. This is due to a late season monsoon burst which is currently building over India. ImageImageImageImage
Here we see 48 hour rainfall forecasts from the same four models, the CMC (Canada), GFS (US), KMA (Korea) and ACG (Australia). ImageImageImageImage
And finally, here are the two longer range models, which include the full impact of the monsoon burst. F
1. The GFS 16 day model.
2. The KMA 12 day model. ImageImage
This satellite image, also today, includes an important new feature which appeared this morning in the top right, a small area of intense convection over the Northern Arabian Sea south of Pakistan. Image
Here we have three 10 day rainfall forecasts for the Horn covering Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somaliland, Somalia, Djibouti, southern parts of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan and South Western parts of Yemen.

In three of these forecasts the rainfall covers almost the entire region. ImageImageImageImage
And here we have three 48 hour forecasts from the ECM (EU), GFS (US) and KMA (Korean) models. ImageImageImage
This is a closeup animation, 24 hours, of the area of disturbance in the Arabian Sea which was briefly designated as an area of interest by the global cyclone monitoring network (the purple line).
This morning when this appeared I posted a small thread about this. And between midnight and 6am (UTC) the GFS global weather model significantly adjusted its forecast on the basis of its appearance.
This is the most important tweet in that thread. And it represents the initial re calibration of the GFS model based on this observation. As this is long range and cyclones are very unpredictable it will likely change, but so far the forecast holds.
Here's an older view of the same data but looking at it from an Indian Ocean wide view.

These plots show precipitable water [airborne water vapour]. B ecause water has mass, in physics terms this roughly speaking equals energy/potential for rain].
This was before that pop up storm appeared. After the pop up storm appeared the model started predicting cyclones. Two of them.
These two cyclones are highly speculative at this stage. And they appear to arise after the Cyclone Gulab weather system, which is currently over the Bay of Bengal crosses India and emerges into the Arabian Sea.
Here's a picture Cyclone Gulab's forecast track this evening. Image
Which brings us to the rainfall forecasts for the Middle East. First we have four 10 day rainfall forecasts.

Of these only the GFS and CMC models have forecasted landfalling cyclones. ImageImageImageImage
Next four 48 hour forecasts, which show all show relatively minor rain over the Arabian Peninsula in the short term. ImageImageImageImage
And finally we have four long range forecasts.

1. KMA 12-Day
2. GEFS (US ensemble) 16 Day
3. EPS (EU ensemble) 15 Day
4. GFS 16-Day (same as the animations earlier) ImageImageImageImage
At this point talk of cyclones is highly speculative as their existence is still some time away. I will be monitoring this closely and posting the latest data and observations.
That said the overall pattern, from an energy perspective is unlikely to alter significantly in magnitude and there is a lot of water heading towards East Africa.

Where that arrives and in what form is yet to be determined. But something is going to happen.

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More from @althecat

27 Sep
What is @mkainerugaba up to? He's been on a very odd trajectory for the past week. Visiting Egypt and Somalia and retweeting TPLF UNGA propaganda.

This was just retweeted by @MohamedHRoble, the PM of Somalia who recently had his powers removed by Somalia President @M_Farmaajo.
Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba is the son of Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, and Commander of Uganda Land Forces (UPDF), making him responsible for peacekeeping contingents, including AMISOM in Somalia.
[Image src: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_U… >> Uganda has contributed most troops.] Image
Five days before @mkainerugaba's strange trip to Egypt and associated twitter activity, his father President Museveni issued a statement "ON THE MILITARY COUPS THAT HAVE RECENTLY TAKEN PLACE IN SOME
AFRICAN COUNTRIES" >> yowerikmuseveni.com/sites/default/…
Read 16 tweets
26 Sep
Here's @AP's report on @DemekeHasen's speech to the #UNGA last night >> apnews.com/article/united…

But I find it rather confusing there are TPLF diplomatic letters in relation to a matter of life and death for 1000s of people in Ethiopia, which have not been made public.
This report covers several of the speeches made yesterday including that by Ethiopia Deputy PM and Foreign Minister @DemekeHasen. 12newsnow.com/article/news/n…
"Ethiopia Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, who rejected humanitarian concerns over Tigray as part of a “twisted propaganda campaign" in the embattled corner of northern Ethiopia." >> 12newsnow.com/article/news/n…
Read 13 tweets
25 Sep
#UNGA #UNGAEthiopiaCrisis

When will the world’s leaders especially those in the UN US Africa and Europe wake up to the realities of TPLF’s horrific secessionist war in Ethiopia.

The credibility of the UN itself is on the line here.
This horrific massacre took place before the UNGA began. Ethiopian media have been reporting it for a week. Finally a Western media outlet @AP reports on it.

Nairobi’s media cohort have known about this since the first reports emerged on social media and Ethiopian TV.
The credibility of Western bastions of influence >> the US Govt. @StateDept the @EU_Commission @eu_eeas, the UK Govt. @BBCNews, the French Govt. The UN @WFP @UNHCRC & media & ngos @Amnesty @NyTimes @telegraph @washingtonpost @FRANCE24 are all in tatters.
Read 9 tweets
25 Sep
An unexpected pop up storm in the Arabian Sea may develop into a cyclone and head towards the Gulf. over #OMAN, #UAE and #Qatar.
The storm was not in the first GFS run this morning (00hrs UTC) but appeared in the following run at O6 UTC. Behind it there appears to be a second, possibly larger cyclonic system which is currently over the Bay of Bengal.
In this image you can see both storms. The one over the Bay of Bengal, currently designated depression O3B is expected to become a cyclonic storm shortly.
Read 5 tweets
24 Sep
Dear @JoeNBC,

The issue with the submarine deal is NOT ABOUT SUBMARINES. Nor is it anything to do with the Election. This election is @EmmanuelMacron's to lose and his opponent is not Le Pen, it is the talented mayor of Paris, the Green/Socialist candidate Hidalgo. /1
The diplomatic crisis is with a) NATO and b) All of Europe. And it is about the US deciding to form a special relationship with the terrible Australian and UK Govt's both led by morons. And the decision to start a new cold war in the Pacific.
The issue for Europe has two legs to it.
- Europe does not appreciate being treated like chumps on the global stage as the U.S. is sabre rattling in the Pacific Ocean.
- Europe is focused on Climate Change, and addressing climate change is a multi-polar problem, China/EU/US.
Read 8 tweets
24 Sep
As the #UNGA is focused on Climate Change the biosphere is putting on a show. We currently have powerful cyclones in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and the yet more extreme weather, even though it's now late September.

Thread....
Today I have had a deep look around the globe after very active North Atlantic and a massive United States sized circulating low in Europe - exhibiting some of the same characteristics which resulted in severe flooding in July developed of East Europe.
Here's the big-picture view which includes:
- A cyclone in the West Pacific: forecast to become a Super Typhoon.
- A depression in the Bay of Bengal: forecast to become a Severe Cyclone.
- A hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic: forecast to become a Cat4 Hurricane.
Read 24 tweets

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