Regulatory measures targeting China's education, health care, and Internet sectors have been rolled out in rapid succession, which are thought to be part of China’s drive towards common prosperity. 1/6
In a recent report, CF40 Youth Economist Forum member XIONG Yuan and Guosheng Securities Analyst YANG Tao analyze the meanings, realizations and goals of common prosperity, along with its implications for the economy and industries. 2/6
The focus of common prosperity is on fairness and distribution, aiming to address “three major gaps”, i.e., income gap, regional gap and urban-rural gap, which have been widened since the outbreak of #COVID19. 3/6
To close the “three major gaps” requires improvement of “primary #distribution, redistribution, and third distribution,” especially the reform on factors like labor and capital, as well as regulation of high-income. 4/6
China’s goals for narrowing the wealth gap are too conservative, according to XIONG Yuan and YANG Tao, while goals for public service are proactive, mostly higher than the actual data in 2020. 5/6
On the implications, the authors believe that common prosperity could boost consumer spending and investment in livelihood-related sectors, while some of the other sectors could be under the blow. Full text at: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZUaW-sNYkTje… 6/6

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More from @ChinaFinance40

29 Sep
The pursuit of common prosperity is a dynamic, long-term process that spans across generations, says Zeng Zheng, a CF40 Young Economist. It requires scientific planning, steady progress and sustained momentum. 1/12
In this process, it’s crucial to understand the relationship between government functions and market forces and their coordination in 3 dimensions. 2/12
DIMENSION 1: the relation between productive forces and production relations. Common prosperity involves both of the two aspects: “prosperity” indicates productivity growth, while “common” indicates production relations and distribution. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
28 Sep
How is China’s recent export performance? #PMI for new export orders has been declining since May, but total #exports have maintained a fast growth, especially in the last two months, setting new record highs for the same period. Such divergence could be confusing. 1/5
In a recent article, CF40 research associate and deputy director of the Research Department ZHU He says China’s surprisingly strong #exports after July come more from increased cost than demand. 2/5 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lUuGDhKrSnDr…
ZHU He analyses the #export growth rate of 6512 categories of products over the past six months by splitting the two dimensions of volume and price. The result shows that 15 percentage points of the 25% export growth rate in August actually came from product #price hikes. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
20 May
Sudden turns in macroeconomic policies before Q3, 2021 would be inadvisable, says Zhu He, CF40 Research Fellow. It’s not yet time for macroeconomic policies to change direction, not to mention the speed of the turn, he says. 1/8

cf40.com/en/news_detail…
Recent data suggest a slowdown in China’s recovery, with the output gap closing at a slower pace. It remains uncertain whether #export and real estate #investment can sustain momentum in the next two quarters. 2/8
Any weakening of domestic #consumption or manufacturing investment before they return to normal levels would be a big drag on aggregate #demand and economic recovery. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
19 May
Dr. Zhang Bin at CASS suggests to give full play to the flexibility of the #RMB exchange rate as a buffer for China’s macroeconomic stability: 1/6

cf40.com/en/news_detail…
Whether it is to deal with the difference in relative demand changes at home and abroad, or to handle the impact of international capital flows, maintaining a flexible RMB exchange rate would be a major coping strategy. 2/6
Under a flexible exchange rate regime, RMB will depreciate to a certain extent if the US #economy stages a strong recovery while the recovery of the Chinese economy marginally weakens, which’ll have a positive effect on increasing aggregate demand and preventing deflation. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
18 May
Taking stock of China’s economic performance in April, CF40 research department calls for stronger macroeconomic policy supports as consumer spending falls short of expectation while export alone can't sustain the sound operation of the entire economy: 1/8
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nA9lvfcMXGz-…
To be specific, real estate investment has remained quite resilient, but is facing greater downward pressure with tighter regulations and higher interest rates; 2/8
manufacturing investment has picked up driven by exports; while infrastructure investment falls below expectation and is going to be under the pressure of regulations and fiscal strains in 2H21. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
17 May
Peering into the near future of the Chinese #economy, Dr. Zhang Bin thinks there will be rebound in #consumption and slowdown of #investment: 1/6

cf40.com/en/news_detail…
Household consumption in #China remains significantly lower than the pre-Covid level, with great potential for recovery. As Covid’s impact lingers, service consumption growth in China remains significantly lower than its pre-pandemic levels. 2/6
Household savings maintain steady growth, with newly-added household deposits coming in at RMB 6.68 trillion in 2021Q1. Going forward, as the temperature rises and the virus is further contained, service consumption will recover further, driving rebound in general consumption.3/6
Read 6 tweets

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