The pursuit of common prosperity is a dynamic, long-term process that spans across generations, says Zeng Zheng, a CF40 Young Economist. It requires scientific planning, steady progress and sustained momentum. 1/12
In this process, it’s crucial to understand the relationship between government functions and market forces and their coordination in 3 dimensions. 2/12
DIMENSION 1: the relation between productive forces and production relations. Common prosperity involves both of the two aspects: “prosperity” indicates productivity growth, while “common” indicates production relations and distribution. 3/12
On one hand, China should give full play to market mechanisms in enriching means of labor, improving subjects of labor and upgrading labor skills to boost sustained productivity growth. This will lay a solid material foundation for achieving common prosperity. 4/12
On the other, the government should play its due role in market regulation to foster a proper ownership system, sound division of labor and reasonable product distribution. Improving relations of production is an important institutional&policy premise for common prosperity. 5/12
DIMENSION 2: the balance between fairness and efficiency. This balance can be tilted toward one side depending on the stage of development. 6/12
In general, at the primary stage of development, greater emphasis is placed on efficiency; as the economy grows, the two sides are more balanced, until the pendulum swing towards fairness with increasing wealth accumulation. 7/12
China has turned from focusing more on efficiency to placing equal emphasis on efficiency and fairness. It has made this change so that economic development can benefit more people in a fairer way to promote the sustained and balanced growth of the Chinese economy. 8/12
DIMENSION 3: how to cope with externalities and market failures. Market-driven increase in productivity is the main source for income growth, market forces are the determinants of the income distribution structure, ... 9/12
...the pricing mechanism drives the transmission of income distribution, and market incentives improve the efficiency of national income distribution. 10/12
However, the market has defects - imperfect competition, information asymmetry, regional disparity, and externalities that could result in failures in income distribution. 11/12
That’s where the government can make a difference. The government could work to create a level playing field, improve factor allocation, put in place reallocation measures and provide public goods to make up for market failures. 12/12
How is China’s recent export performance? #PMI for new export orders has been declining since May, but total #exports have maintained a fast growth, especially in the last two months, setting new record highs for the same period. Such divergence could be confusing. 1/5
In a recent article, CF40 research associate and deputy director of the Research Department ZHU He says China’s surprisingly strong #exports after July come more from increased cost than demand. 2/5 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lUuGDhKrSnDr…
ZHU He analyses the #export growth rate of 6512 categories of products over the past six months by splitting the two dimensions of volume and price. The result shows that 15 percentage points of the 25% export growth rate in August actually came from product #price hikes. 3/5
Regulatory measures targeting China's education, health care, and Internet sectors have been rolled out in rapid succession, which are thought to be part of China’s drive towards common prosperity. 1/6
In a recent report, CF40 Youth Economist Forum member XIONG Yuan and Guosheng Securities Analyst YANG Tao analyze the meanings, realizations and goals of common prosperity, along with its implications for the economy and industries. 2/6
The focus of common prosperity is on fairness and distribution, aiming to address “three major gaps”, i.e., income gap, regional gap and urban-rural gap, which have been widened since the outbreak of #COVID19. 3/6
Sudden turns in macroeconomic policies before Q3, 2021 would be inadvisable, says Zhu He, CF40 Research Fellow. It’s not yet time for macroeconomic policies to change direction, not to mention the speed of the turn, he says. 1/8
Recent data suggest a slowdown in China’s recovery, with the output gap closing at a slower pace. It remains uncertain whether #export and real estate #investment can sustain momentum in the next two quarters. 2/8
Any weakening of domestic #consumption or manufacturing investment before they return to normal levels would be a big drag on aggregate #demand and economic recovery. 3/8
Whether it is to deal with the difference in relative demand changes at home and abroad, or to handle the impact of international capital flows, maintaining a flexible RMB exchange rate would be a major coping strategy. 2/6
Under a flexible exchange rate regime, RMB will depreciate to a certain extent if the US #economy stages a strong recovery while the recovery of the Chinese economy marginally weakens, which’ll have a positive effect on increasing aggregate demand and preventing deflation. 3/6
Taking stock of China’s economic performance in April, CF40 research department calls for stronger macroeconomic policy supports as consumer spending falls short of expectation while export alone can't sustain the sound operation of the entire economy: 1/8 mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nA9lvfcMXGz-…
To be specific, real estate investment has remained quite resilient, but is facing greater downward pressure with tighter regulations and higher interest rates; 2/8
manufacturing investment has picked up driven by exports; while infrastructure investment falls below expectation and is going to be under the pressure of regulations and fiscal strains in 2H21. 3/8
Household consumption in #China remains significantly lower than the pre-Covid level, with great potential for recovery. As Covid’s impact lingers, service consumption growth in China remains significantly lower than its pre-pandemic levels. 2/6
Household savings maintain steady growth, with newly-added household deposits coming in at RMB 6.68 trillion in 2021Q1. Going forward, as the temperature rises and the virus is further contained, service consumption will recover further, driving rebound in general consumption.3/6