Thread on higher energy prices in Europe
1- Several people are saying that higher fossil fuel prices in Europe will expedite the transition to renewables. Really? We have been there before!

2- The basic materials used in all energy sources are the same. Costs go up for all.
3- If demand for drilling equipment increases as oil & gas prices rise, basic materials for wind & solar may not be available. If available, they will be at higher prices. With oil above $75 & natural gas above $5, the oil industry can afford the increase in cost. Others cannot!
4- Oil & renewable energy are not substitutes in Europe, the US, China, and India. That where most of the global oil consumption is.
5- Natural gas is needed to back up solar & wind regardless of its price in a carbon neutrality world. Otherwise, coal is here to stay as a backup.
6- Why are the greenest countries in the world are suffering from the highest electricity prices in their history, and the highest prices in the world? If the energy crisis in Europe taught us something, it is the need for more investment in natural gas.
7- Given the lack of truck drivers in the UK that led to some gasoline shortages, which in turn led to panic buying & hoarding, which led to massive shortages, some people suggested a faster transition to #ElectricVehicles. They missed the point.
8- What to do with record electricity prices and ever-rising electricity bills? Remember, the only reason why the UK did not experience power outages is the restart of coal plants. In Sweden, it was the restart of an oil-powered plant that saved the day.
9- Given the panic buying & the hoarding behavior in the UK (& the crazy actions of some motorists), imagine the unpreceded power blackout that will happen if all switched to electric vehicles, all have storage batteries at home, & all told that wind is not blowing for two days
10- Look, technology changes all the time, but basic human instincts stay the same. Run on a bank, run on stores for toilet paper & sanitizers, & run on gas stations for gasoline.. are all the same. #OOTT
11- With the widespread use of #ElectricVehicles and batteries for storage, news of possible power outages will cause a run on the grid. Power outages will happen exactly like the gasoline outages! #Gasoline #OOTT #UK #Europe
12- The idea that higher fossil fuel prices will expedite the shift to renewables may not be correct. The idea that expedited shift to renewables & electric vehicles will solve future energy crises is absolutely incorrect. Do not mix environmental benefits with energy security
13- The energy crisis of the UK & higher energy prices in Europe were the results of policy failures while the IEA turned a blind eye. This energy crisis shows the need to change the IEA name to the International Environmental Agency. It failed at its main job: energy security.
14- Environmental security & energy security are not the same & cannot be used interchangeably. While there is some overlap, the rest are mostly substitutes. Therefore, the focus must be on an optimal combination of both for each country. Otherwise, it is a crisis to crisis!

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More from @anasalhajji

15 Aug
سلسلة تغريدات عن أهمية أفغانستان الاستراتيجية لسياسات التغير المناخي
1- لانعرف بالضبط ماهو دور أنابيب الغاز والنفط والثروات المعدنية لأفغانستان في الاحتلال الأميركي لها، أو الانسحاب منها، أو في السماح لطالبان في السيطرة عليها. #أفغانستان #طالبان
2- الحديث عن دور هذه الأنابيب والمعادن هو مجرد تخمين، أو هو مجرد منفعة إضافية، وهذا يعني أنها لم تكن الهدف الأساس لا في الدخول ولافي الخروج، ولكن لامانع من تحقيق منافع اضافية. وجود تصريحات أميركية عن أهميتها لايعني بالضرورة على أنها السبب.
3- خط أنبوب "تابي" ينقل الغاز من تركمانستان إلى أفغانستان ثم إلى الباكستان والهند بطول 1814 كم. الفكرة قديمة منذ التسعينيات، تم إنشاء أقسام منه في أفغانستان وفي باكستان. الخط مهم للغرب لأنه يضارب على إيران. مهم للباكستان والهند، ويخفف من اعتماد الصين على روسيا.
Read 35 tweets
11 Aug
Thread on the Infrastructure Bill & Biden's asking OPEC to increase production
1- It is possible that the statement regarding OPEC is a routine one, which previous administrations had repeated multiple times.
2- But the timing makes us link it to the infrastructure bill.
#OOTT
2- Economically, the infrastructure bill is inflationary. It increases the demand for almost everything, including petroleum products. Hence, it is logical to expect prices of these products to increase.
With inflation, the money dedicated to infrastructure will get less done!
3- Politically, the last thing the Biden Administration wants is to give Republicans a platform to attack the infrastructure bill by focusing on inflation, and fuel prices in particular. Therefore, the objective is to fight inflation on all levels, including higher fuel prices
Read 11 tweets
11 Aug
1-3 It is a historic moment when the pro-climate change Biden Administration:
1- blocks oil pipelines in the US, ban drilling on n federal land, then asks OPEC to increase production so US dependence on foreign oil imports increases!
#Oil #OPEC #OOTT
2-3 asking OPEC to increase oil production so gasoline price can decline, so people drive more, and produce more CO2 emissions!
3-3 asking OPEC to increase oil production, which needs more investment, a day after UN chief, who is also pro-climate change, called for immediate end to investment in oil and gas.
Read 4 tweets
9 Aug
سلسلة تغريدات
1- حكى لي أحد أساتذتي، رحمه الله، أنه خرج من المدرسة في مدينة حلب السورية في الستينيات، وإذا بالناس يهرعون باتجاه معين. فسأل، فقالوا له أن مسؤول حكومي كبير سيتكلم..
ووصل إلى الساحة، وبدا المسؤول بالحديث عن سد تم بناؤه في المنطقة، وتم تدشينه في ذلك اليوم (يتبع)
2- وقال المسؤول: بنينا هذا السد الذي دشناه اليوم، حتى نتخلص من الاعتماد على رحمة السماء.
قال شيخنا: تمزق قلبي وأنا أسمع هذا الكلام... والله توقف المطر واستمر الجفاف ثلاثة سنوات، ضجت فيها الناس. ولم يجمع السد قطرة ماء واحدة.
3- ليس هدفي التركيز على النواحي الدينية هنا، ولكن على نقطة واحدة: وظيفة التكنولوجيا حل مشاكل البشر، وحل مشاكل تقلب الطقس. مشكلة غلاة التغير المناخي أنهم اختاروا كل أنواع التكنولوجيا التي هي رهينة الطقس، ظناً منهم أن فيها الأمن والاستقرار والإستدامة! المفروض اختيار العكس!
Read 5 tweets
1 Aug
Thread
1- Heavy regulations of oil & gas in favor of green energy will only result in greenwashing oil & gas. So many ways to legally greenwash any fossil fuel.

All of this lead to one result: Carbon neutrality will be the mother of all ENRONS: an unprecedented accounting fraud
2- So, what I can do to make my oil or LNG green? There are so many ways... including enriching Elon Musk and Tesla stockholders! Why? Because some corrupt politicians created laws that make it work that way. Anyway, Auto companies are now paying $Tesla to greenwash their cars!
3- People are going to go crazy when they realize what companies can claim in their carbon neutrality accounting systems! Hey, my stores have had skylights since they were built 40 years ago. I have been green all along but I just learned about it!
Read 13 tweets
13 Jul
Thread on OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, & the UAE

1- OPEC+ production cut agreement is still on.
2- Countries that cheat on their quota are in violation of the agreement. They have to compensate. If you are a producer, what would you do if you know your quota will increase in the future?
3- Any delay in increasing oil production means extending the OPEC+ deal. A delay of one month without changing the planned 400 kbd increase means the deal has to be extended another month. If no deal this summer, the deal might be extended to 2023.
#Oil #OPEC #OOTT
4- If they, after a few delays, choose to end the deal at the end of 2022 anyway, then they have to increase the amount above the currently planned 400 kbd.
In a sense, the production cut agreement will end when OPEC+ returns 5.8 mb/d to the market.

#OPEC
Read 11 tweets

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