Thread
1- Heavy regulations of oil & gas in favor of green energy will only result in greenwashing oil & gas. So many ways to legally greenwash any fossil fuel.

All of this lead to one result: Carbon neutrality will be the mother of all ENRONS: an unprecedented accounting fraud
2- So, what I can do to make my oil or LNG green? There are so many ways... including enriching Elon Musk and Tesla stockholders! Why? Because some corrupt politicians created laws that make it work that way. Anyway, Auto companies are now paying $Tesla to greenwash their cars!
3- People are going to go crazy when they realize what companies can claim in their carbon neutrality accounting systems! Hey, my stores have had skylights since they were built 40 years ago. I have been green all along but I just learned about it!
4- Look, our company campus has about 2,000 old trees, many were there before the campus was built. Can we claim that in our carbon calculations? Sure you can!
5- Hey look, we asked half of our workforce to work permanently from home. We moved to a smaller building. Now our carbon footprint is way smaller and we will present that to our board.
6- Between the smaller building and 50% of our labor force not commuting to work, we cut our company's carbon footprint by 60%. We will also print that on our products to show our customers and investors how green we are. #OOTT #Carbon
7- Look over there, we sold our factory in India that uses power from a coal-fired plant. This will reduce our carbon footprint by 15%. (yet the emissions from a global point of view are still the same)
#ClimateCrisis
8- My oil & gas business is going to be labeled green soon because I am converting some production to hydrogen and ammonia... I am also going to tilt more toward natural gas to reduce my carbon footprint. #Oil #Natgas #OOTT #ClimateCrisis
9- I am going to convert my oil and gas into materials to be used in the making of #ElectricVehicles, wind turbines, and #solar panels... I am contributing to the green revolution.

Billionaire XYZ is already green. He owns an Island with a forset that has about 50,000 trees
10- Ok, you got the idea. The fact is, companies & governments will go for the low-hanging fruits. Big harvest with little effort. That means we will see some real improvement globally in reducing carbon. Some companies & govts might bring a ladder & work harder, but that is it!
11- The trees are huge and tall... a lot of fruits will be left on the trees. That means we will not achieve carbon neutrality... hence the accounting games are needed.
Energy companies will sell their most polluting assets.. they will look greener, but NO change for the world
12- The most interesting carbon neutrality accounting game is counting things that existed for years and decades toward carbon neutrality such as skylight, light sensors, and trees. Or counting things that would have happened anyway because of economics, technology, and #COVID19
13- To conclude: climate agreements, regulations, and texas will reduce carbon marginally as companies and movements go for the effortless low-hanging fruits. few "climate purists" will do little more. Everything above that will be an accounting game: the mother of all ENRONS!

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More from @anasalhajji

13 Jul
Thread on OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, & the UAE

1- OPEC+ production cut agreement is still on.
2- Countries that cheat on their quota are in violation of the agreement. They have to compensate. If you are a producer, what would you do if you know your quota will increase in the future?
3- Any delay in increasing oil production means extending the OPEC+ deal. A delay of one month without changing the planned 400 kbd increase means the deal has to be extended another month. If no deal this summer, the deal might be extended to 2023.
#Oil #OPEC #OOTT
4- If they, after a few delays, choose to end the deal at the end of 2022 anyway, then they have to increase the amount above the currently planned 400 kbd.
In a sense, the production cut agreement will end when OPEC+ returns 5.8 mb/d to the market.

#OPEC
Read 11 tweets
12 Jul
Thread on global oil production: Shale & Sanctions

1. The results are in. Only a few got it right! It is Canada. The US doubled its production by 2019, then production declined in 2020. This explains why the majority went for the US.
see chart in next tweet #Oil #OOTT
2. The chart below is a production index of the top 12 producing countries. It shows that the highest increases came from Canada, the US, and Iraq.

Anything below 100 is a decrease. In the case of Venezuela, production in 2020 is only about 17% of what it was in 2000. #OOTT
3. Here are changes in the production of crude & condensates between 2010 and 2020:
The US added 5.83 mb/d. Virtual tie between Iraq & Canada at around 1.62 mb/d, followed by Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, & Kuwait.

Now, look at the decline. Venezuela leads by 2.2 mb/d
#oil
Read 14 tweets
10 Jul
OMG! 🔥
This is one of the times where I deeply hate to be correct & spot on. I tweeted about this last year.. reality bite..

#Oil #OOTT

University of Calgary suspends admission for oil and gas engineering program calgary.ctvnews.ca/university-of-… via @CTVCalgary
Read 6 tweets
1 Jul
🔥Thread on why #OPEC+ meeting was delayed. Please feel free to quote.

1- The baseline for the calculation of the adjustments agreement of April 2020 was the oil production of October 2018. It has been used in all adjustments since then, including today's proposal
#OOTT #oil
2- Today's proposal consists of two parts:

a- Increase production by 2 mb/d between August & December in 400 kbd monthly installments.

b- Extend the production cut agreement from April 2022 to December 2022.

The objective is to bring order, stability & clarity to the market
3- The above are based on OPEC+ agreement to use October 2018 production as a base. All OPEC+ members appear to agree on it except the UAE

Some oil industry leaders in the UAE believe the UAE made a mistake by agreeing to a bad deal that used October 2018 as a base.
#OPEC #Oil
Read 11 tweets
19 Jun
Thread.. Friday night rant
1- Political comments about 4 oil producers: #Iran, #Iraq, #Libya & #Yemen:

End of crises in these countries requires dismantling all militias. That leads to another chaos as unemployment, poverty & crimes rise, while #Europe is flooded with refugees.
2- This explains the push by Europeans to integrate the militias into the army, despite their war crimes against humanity. Also, they do not want to pay to rescue these countries from being failed states. So militias are serving local and foreign interests at once
3- Now add Venezuela into the mix! Who has interest in dismantling the militias? Biden? No.
Without jobs, what will young men and women do? 🤔
It is an old political trick by politicians: if you do not keep them busy, they will be busy with you!
Read 15 tweets
17 Jun
Get this:
BP predicted in 2010 that OCED energy consumption in 2030 will be only 6% higher than in 2010 & that energy consumption between 2020 & 2030 will be virtually flat.
Fact from BP itself: OECD consumption between 2010 and 2019 was double the predicted growth: 12%
#OOTT
As for oil, it predicted the percentage of oil consumption in the global energy mix to decline from around 33% to 29% by 2020. Well, it remains at around 33%! That means all the expected decline to 2030 is now in the next decade.
BP predicted in 2010 that global oil + liquids consumption will be around 94 mb/d in 2019. Actually, it was around 100 mb/d! Off by a whipping 6 mb/d!

This is reality folks!
Read 4 tweets

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