Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread on OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, & the UAE

1- OPEC+ production cut agreement is still on.
2- Countries that cheat on their quota are in violation of the agreement. They have to compensate. If you are a producer, what would you do if you know your quota will increase in the future?

3- Any delay in increasing oil production means extending the OPEC+ deal. A delay of one month without changing the planned 400 kbd increase means the deal has to be extended another month. If no deal this summer, the deal might be extended to 2023.
#Oil #OPEC #OOTT

4- If they, after a few delays, choose to end the deal at the end of 2022 anyway, then they have to increase the amount above the currently planned 400 kbd.
In a sense, the production cut agreement will end when OPEC+ returns 5.8 mb/d to the market.

#OPEC

5- There were questions on whether fixing the ceiling of gasoline prices in Saudi Arabia is related to the Saudi oil policy. Some people suggested that the Saudis know that oil prices will increase but, like Biden & others around the world, they do not want gasoline prices to ⬆️

6- I personally do not know if they are related. But I know that many Saudis were complaining that higher prices are hurting them because they pay more for gasoline. Therefore, they might not be related.

7- Back to the previous discussion on whether the dispute is political and what we saw at the OPEC+ meeting was a "symptom" or was about "oil" that became political.
The problem is: every piece of strong evidence can be countered by another piece of strong evidence!

8- That means only "insiders" know the truth. But why are they "insiders"? Because they keep secrets! So insiders will not talk.

This gives opportunity to each side to tell the story they want to tell, true, wrong, or mixed.

#OPEC #oil #OOTT

9- Be aware of those who claim to be insiders .. Be aware of the propaganda, especially the paid one!

One fact: Politicians can fight one day and have dinner together another day.

#Oil #OPEC #OOTT

10- Oil Prices will NOT increase substantially as some people hope:

- If OPEC+ members cheat
- If they agree to increase production
- OPEC+ deal is flexible. If global oil demand is higher than expected, they will meet and agree to increase production. They meet monthly!

11- If you think 6 mb/d+ of spare capacity is not enough, then, I am talking to certain people here, you cannot have your cake & eat it: that means global oil demand has NOT peaked! By using 6 mb/d+ of spare capacity, we will be above the global oil demand in 2019!
#oil #OOTT

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