The @IEJ_SA today releases a seminal policy brief- Designing a Basic Income Guarantee- that has been 3 months in development. It reviews international literature on universal vs targeted grants, & draws key lessons for the design of a #UBIG for S Africa. iej.org.za/designing-a-ba…
Key findings include:
•How a BIG is designed is as important as its adoption.
•A key flaw of targeting a specific vulnerable group:it doesn't reach them in practice...due to administrative burdens, unwarranted exclusions, stigmatisation,& changes in eligibility of recipients.
In contrast, universality minimises these risks while appropriate taxation measures ensure only those in need receive a net benefit.
..modelling shows providing larger grants to fewer people does not necessarily result in improved poverty-alleviating and distributional outcomes.
•The assertion that social assistance creates dependency or discourages labour market participation is disproved by the evidence. In fact, it is targeted grants which can reduce incentives to seek employment and raise earnings due to the potential loss of the BIG.
•A UBI, even at a relatively low level, has a greater impact on poverty than a targeted unemployment grant set at a significantly higher level, because it reaches a range of adults of different employment statuses in low-income households, who are thus able to pool their income.
•Universality, because of its relative administrative simplicity, allows far more expeditious implementation of a BIG to address the current socioeconomic crisis with the urgency required.
•The implementation of a Universal BIG at meaningful levels is affordable.
Key Recommendations:
•A universal BIG is clearly a preferable, more efficient, & more impactful policy option.
•If ‘phasing-in’ is unavoidable, then extension/improvement of the current SRD Grant, followed by an income threshold BIG , & then a universal BIG is most appropriate
Congratulations to IEJ Associate Researcher Nathan Taylor for his excellent work on this.
A slide presentation summarising the @IEJ_SA policy brief (for those who are time-poor) can be found here 👇 iej.org.za/designing-a-bi…
I have been overwhelmed with responses to my tweet👇of DSD Minister announcing governments intention to implement a #BasicIncomeGrant. Leaving aside the usual attacks by trolls, serious concerns raised can be boiled down to 8 issues. I deal with these as best I can below. Thread:
1. *Why is it only proposed to benefit those from 18-59*? The reason is that there are extensive grants for children and pensioners, & the big gap is the poor & unemployed from 18-59. If the grant for this group is universal (not means-tested), then it will be a BIG
2.*Why now, when the Covid-19 unemployed grant has been such a mess?* The crisis of unemployment & poverty (over 10 million unemployed, & over 50% in poverty) is growing as the Covid crisis deepens. The Covid grant expires end October. There has to be something to replace it. A
As we head towards the #budget@TitoMboweni announced the government intends to introduce #ZeroBasedBudgeting (ZBB)- the notion that budgets are justified from scratch- to radically cutback on spending. What does this mean?
A thread:
When the RDP was introduced in 1994, the notion of #ZBB (while not mentioned in the RDP doc.) was used at the time to convey the idea that apartheid budgets couldn’t serve as the baseline, but that new budgets needed to be constructed by the democratic state.
A relatively conservative section was controversially inserted on macro economic policy & budgeting- a discussion for another time. omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.…
Ive been asked to comment on why @UKLabour was defeated in the #UKelection2019 & so many working class people voted for right wing #Tories. Outsider humility dictates caution in responding, but I have collated some articles containing incisive analyses.They suggest some answers👇
But "Labour did not succeed in turning the big manifesto offer into a short, sharp set of priorities that showed that they would make you ...directly better off" mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Some people have asked for our comment on the #Treasury#EconomicStrategy document
There are two major issues: process and content.
I deal with these in turn.Note: these are not the official views of the @IEJ_SA 👇
Firstly on *process*
National Treasury has gone rogue...again
They have unilaterally published a policy document without engaging
👉government structures
👉ANC structures or
👉civil society (unless you count financial sector economists present at their colloquia).
Given that we are in a deep economic crisis, this Treasury unilateralism is highly irresponsible, as broad engagement on the *nature of the problem* is critical to coming up with *appropriate solutions*. But it now emerges that such engagement was totally absent.
How many workers will benefit from the #NMW? According to research by @SA_NMW around *4 million workers* are earning <R20 p/h. This is a significant no. - over one third of the formal workforce. The widely quoted figure of 6,4 million isn't accurate, & reflects 2016 estimates.
Nevertheless a high proportion of workers in SA will benefit from the #NationalMinimumWage by international standards. According to the @SA_NMW the following fell below the NMW: in 16 Latin American countries most were below 15%. In the UK, 5%. Germany, 7% Malaysia, 15%.
A widespread perception around #MTBPS2018 today is that there are too many public servants, who're paid too much, & that we can only afford to expand services/investment if these costs are cut back. But check this 👇 thread, & see whether this is in fact correct @Zwelinzima1
Despite having to extend services to a large population historically excluded from many services, the numbers employed by government (local provincial & national) compared to the numbers employed under apartheid has not significantly increased as a share of total employment.
There was a reduction of 203 000 public service jobs between 1995-99. While those cutbacks were subsequently reversed, this was not done on a scale which kept pace with the growth in the economy, the population, or service delivery requirements.