Thread by @EHSANI221

Thread:

Rifaat al-Assad’s return to Damascus (reported here yesterday) is the long culmination of efforts that started as early as 2011 when #Syria ‘s crisis started

Set below is how Rifaat & his sons got into a push & pull exercise in multiple directions till this week

2-Since early on, Rifaat’s household was divided. His son Somar started making frequent visits to Damascus despite being a hawk against the Palace in Damascus pre 2011

Soon, Rifaat’s other son Siwar joined what has become known as the reconciliation camp inside the household

3-The anti reconciliation camp was led by Ribal who became very public in his efforts to become an opposition figure palatable to EU & Western capitals

Rifaat was now being pulled in multiple directions by his various sons. Early on he sided with Ribal

4-Early on, Both Somar & Siwar thought the crisis was an opportunity for the extended family to put their old rifts behind them. Damascus however was never going to give Rifaat a platform to use for his comeback. Rifaat himself thought he could ride on his own opposition wave

5-When #Syria 's main opposition saw Riffat's attempts to carve a path for himself, they all united against him. This was one thing the Opp could unite on. both Haytham Manaa (secular) & the Moslem Brotherhood winng were in unison on this. Things soon got worse for Rifaat

6-#France 's Govt was under increasing pressure to rein in corruption by various African leaders & others. New & tightening of existing Laws started around 2013.

Now enter #Libya and #SaudiArabia

7-Gaddafi was known to have sent Rifaat money when he left Damascus in 1984. After he was toppled, #Libya 's new Govt started to investigate about ill gotten funds of the State. Gaddafi's handout to Rifaat soon resurfaced. A number up to $100mm was cited to French officials

8-New Govt in #Libya & #Syria 's opposition were on friendly terms by now & both sought to push #France to go after Rifaat's wealth. Paris now has a sitting Govt making a claim. The ball started rolling against Rifaat now

9-Rifaat had to explain the source of his funds. His defense team pointed to Riyadh. King Abdullah of #SaudiArabia was married to a sister of Rifaat's wife. It was common knowledge that the two were close & that the King handed Rifaat cash after he went into exile

10-While Rifaat explained how source of his funds was #SaudiArabia , #Syria 's opposition including both Khaddam & Tlas told French authorities that the main source was Damascus (citing $300 mm from Central Bank). Rifaat categorically disputed the unsubstantiated claims

11-Rifaat hoped that Riyadh would somehow confirm his story. King Salman & then MBS were radio silenced. #SaudiArabia was simply not going to get involved with something that may have taken place over 3 decades ago. There were of course no bank wire records at the time (cash)

12-While Rifaat has been in #France & #Spain for many years, there was no love lost between him and the local populace. Govt officials were not particularly keen on being seen as helping a man like Rifaat skirt new anti corruption laws

13-The worse the legal case against Rifaat went, the more his sons calling for reconciliation with Damascus pushed. Only now, Rifaat's youngest and most favorite son (also named Rifaat but uses nickname of Roro) was also on board after a trip to #Syria in 2020

14-The first strong hint of Rifaat's return came when he personally showed up at the Embassy to vote for Bashar Assad. He made sure his visit was posted on social media. The final arrangements were set in motion since

15-For his part, #Syria 's President gave his approval but on the strong and indisputable understanding that he is merely granting his 84 year uncle the chance to return home to spend the rest of his remaining life. No one is under any doubts about that