Rifaat al-Assad’s return to Damascus (reported here yesterday) is the long culmination of efforts that started as early as 2011 when #Syria ‘s crisis started
Set below is how Rifaat & his sons got into a push & pull exercise in multiple directions till this week
2-Since early on, Rifaat’s household was divided. His son Somar started making frequent visits to Damascus despite being a hawk against the Palace in Damascus pre 2011
Soon, Rifaat’s other son Siwar joined what has become known as the reconciliation camp inside the household
3-The anti reconciliation camp was led by Ribal who became very public in his efforts to become an opposition figure palatable to EU & Western capitals
Rifaat was now being pulled in multiple directions by his various sons. Early on he sided with Ribal
4-Early on, Both Somar & Siwar thought the crisis was an opportunity for the extended family to put their old rifts behind them. Damascus however was never going to give Rifaat a platform to use for his comeback. Rifaat himself thought he could ride on his own opposition wave
5-When #Syria 's main opposition saw Riffat's attempts to carve a path for himself, they all united against him. This was one thing the Opp could unite on. both Haytham Manaa (secular) & the Moslem Brotherhood winng were in unison on this. Things soon got worse for Rifaat
6-#France 's Govt was under increasing pressure to rein in corruption by various African leaders & others. New & tightening of existing Laws started around 2013.
7-Gaddafi was known to have sent Rifaat money when he left Damascus in 1984. After he was toppled, #Libya 's new Govt started to investigate about ill gotten funds of the State. Gaddafi's handout to Rifaat soon resurfaced. A number up to $100mm was cited to French officials
8-New Govt in #Libya & #Syria 's opposition were on friendly terms by now & both sought to push #France to go after Rifaat's wealth. Paris now has a sitting Govt making a claim. The ball started rolling against Rifaat now
9-Rifaat had to explain the source of his funds. His defense team pointed to Riyadh. King Abdullah of #SaudiArabia was married to a sister of Rifaat's wife. It was common knowledge that the two were close & that the King handed Rifaat cash after he went into exile
10-While Rifaat explained how source of his funds was #SaudiArabia , #Syria 's opposition including both Khaddam & Tlas told French authorities that the main source was Damascus (citing $300 mm from Central Bank). Rifaat categorically disputed the unsubstantiated claims
11-Rifaat hoped that Riyadh would somehow confirm his story. King Salman & then MBS were radio silenced. #SaudiArabia was simply not going to get involved with something that may have taken place over 3 decades ago. There were of course no bank wire records at the time (cash)
12-While Rifaat has been in #France & #Spain for many years, there was no love lost between him and the local populace. Govt officials were not particularly keen on being seen as helping a man like Rifaat skirt new anti corruption laws
13-The worse the legal case against Rifaat went, the more his sons calling for reconciliation with Damascus pushed. Only now, Rifaat's youngest and most favorite son (also named Rifaat but uses nickname of Roro) was also on board after a trip to #Syria in 2020
14-The first strong hint of Rifaat's return came when he personally showed up at the Embassy to vote for Bashar Assad. He made sure his visit was posted on social media. The final arrangements were set in motion since
15-For his part, #Syria 's President gave his approval but on the strong and indisputable understanding that he is merely granting his 84 year uncle the chance to return home to spend the rest of his remaining life. No one is under any doubts about that
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How much of what happened in #Lebanon is “financial” versus “political” is the single most contentious issue when it comes to analyzing & discussing this crisis
As readers can guess by now, i am firmly in the financial camp
Why?
Simple arithmetic & Economics
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Before defending the financial thesis, let's get first into the political part
By political everyone presumably means Hizbollah (HA) and its allies. Story goes that this group runs as a state within a state. They control borders. They allow & practice smuggling
All true
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3-Let's not forget that before 2005, it was #Syria that was main power broker. Presumably, any if not all of #Lebanon 's shortfalls would have been blamed on Damascus (it is now HA)
But
Throughout #Syria 's "control" the currency did not lose 90%. Neither did depositors
Against all odds & by proving many pundits & policy experts wrong, Assad has seemingly survived brutal 10 y old war
Yes, he needed & received both the commitment & support of his two allies in this endeavor
But what is he likely to do next?
2-In spite of #Syria ‘s super centralized system that gives the President ultimate power & control over every facet of Governance, it is shocking how little academic & professional psychoanalysis has been performed on the personality of Assad as an individual
3-Having been in power for over 20 years now, most of the coverage on Assad has been shallow, generic & even schizophrenic
He started as educated reformer then was thought to be likely to quickly cut and run, only to ultimately end up as child killer & mass murderer & monster
When one participates in any Eco / Political discussions in multi-Religious / Sectarian regions like the Levant #Lebanon#Syria , one question always emerges:
Can the people of this region Co-exist?
Can they accept / embrace the other side?
By all accounts, answer seems No
2-War in #Syria has rendered the days of heavy top-down Centralized State obsolete. Efforts must now be exclusively directed at formulating a new post war system that takes away power from the center & hands it to the periphery as this is the de facto state of affairs anyway
3-While #Lebanon already had its own civil war, it is not difficult to notice the return of the old sectarian cleavages that never went away. As the pie gets smaller with the current crisis, divisions have intensified & spirit of co-existence is tested in daily commentary
You’ve been bombarded by experts on what #Lebanon ‘s financial crisis is all about
Here is a simple explanation:
Consumers between 1997-2018 outsmarted / screwed current and future Lebanese consumers by using an overvalued currency to fund their purchases
End of story
2-This is not to say this was a deliberate or conscious decision by 1997-2018 to screw or outsmart the future generation of consumers
As one of my friends used to tell me
Living in #Lebanon during that period was too good to be true. He may not have known why but he felt it
3-This friend was huge spender. He lived at one of the city’s 5 star hotels for almost 18 years. He earned enough interest income to fund his lavish life style. He bought real estate. He had a driver. When I met him in late 2019, he said: