Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/5. On Oct 14, France may have reached its lowest level (4,463) of new #COVID19 cases, while still decreasing to 19 deaths/d. by Oct 20, R-eff=1.02, red, now plateauing; 75.7% 1 dose.

Forecasts for Oct 14 to 29.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/5 - Eleven Régions have reached their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Auv-Rhône-Alp
Bourg-et-Fr-Comté;
Bretag;
Centre-Val-de-L;
Grand-Est;
Hauts-de-Fr;
Normandie;
Nouv-Aquit;
Occitan;

Mayotte;
Réunion.

3/5 - Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (R-eff=0.83) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, close to reach it, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.

4/5 - Three Régions are plateauing just above their #COVID19 safety zones (red), close to them, for 7 more days:

Ile-de-France (R-eff=0.98), with low mortality;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.0, with very low mortality;
Guadeloupe=0.87, with remaining high mortality.

5/5 – Martinique (R-eff=0.96); and [Guyane=0.86] are plateauing [landing], from high levels, towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with very high [high] levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

Corse=1.03, is just above its safety zone, with no expected mortality.

7/6 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

8/6 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0