2/9 - Europe -
There are 3 #COVID19 zones in Europe:
- Green in Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9), landing [close to safe zones] [CH; NO]; ALB; Macedon;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others.
FR=1.02 and PT=1.05, close to safe zones;
PL=1.20; DK=1.19; NL=1.24 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.15, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.13 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.19 (17.1%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.16 (45.3%)
4/9 - Africa -
Increase in #COVID19 cases in Gabon (R-eff=1.17), (4.9% received 1 dose);
Libya=0.95 is slowly landing (red), high mortality (21.0% received 1 dose).
Underreporting in many countries.
5/9 - Middle-East
Jordan (R-eff=1.05, 37.7% received 1 dose) is increasing in its #COVID19 epid activ, with medium mortality.
Israel (72.7%) is rapidly landing towards its safety zone, with high mort.
Iran is slowly landing, with remaining high mortality.
6/9 - Asia & Pacific
Laos (R-eff=1.11) is rising in in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality, while Thailand=0.94 is slowly landing, with medium mortality; Philippines and Malaysia are landing, with medium mortality levels, for 7 more days.
7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
Singapore (R-eff=1.12, 81.2% received 1 dose) surges at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with med mortality, for 7 more d.
8/9 - North America -
Canada is plateauing in its #COVID19 epid activ, low mort, 78.7% 1 dose: Red in 6 prov/terr, green in Ontario, Orange in Alberta and BC.
The USA are landing towards their safety zone, (66.1%), green in Florida, orange in 14, red in 35 states, with high mort.
9/9 - Latin America
Brazil (R-eff=0.87, 73.2% 1 dose); El Salvador=1.0 plateau, med mort.; Belize=0.93; Domin Repub.=1.1 rise in their #COVID19 epid activ.
Cuba; Costa-Rica; Mexico landing, high mort.
Argentina; Colombia; Peru: safe.
Chile=1.10 leaving its safety zone, med mort.
Def:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL).
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale?
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi.
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing [close to safe zones]: ALB; Bos&Herz; [CH; NO]
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.04; PT=1.05, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.19; DK=1.18; NL=1.19, IRL=1.14 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.14, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.14 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.6%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.15 (45.3%)
1/3. By Oct 21, the United Kingdom can reach 43,851 new #COVID19 cases and 123 deaths daily, if the reproductive rate remains same (R-eff=1.07).
73.9% received 1 dose.
2/3 - England (R-eff=1.08) and Northern-Ireland=1.07 are experiencing increase again, at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] level of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/3 - Scotland (R-eff=0.95); and Wales=0.92 are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, from high levels of activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.
1/5. BREAKING NEWS!!!
From Oct 20, France (R-eff=1.04) is foreseen to leave its threshold defined as > 5,000 new #COVID19 cases/day, while decreasing in mortality.
75.6% 1 dose.
Regional forecasts for Oct 15 to 21. tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
2/5 - Five Régions are now increasing or plateauing above their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:
1/11 - “[The UK], a nation that is one of the world’s most mature democracies and prided itself on the quality of its governance ended up with one of the highest death tolls per capita of any big economy, its fumbling equalled perhaps only by the US.” ft.com/content/6369ab…
2/11 - “The first official report into what went wrong, a joint inquiry by two MPs’ committees, sheds valuable, if damning, light. It holds lessons not just for Britain but for others on how better to confront future health emergencies.”committees.parliament.uk/work/657/coron…
3/11 - “One is to maintain constant readiness, but also to prepare for the right risks. Though this was not the fault of Boris Johnson’s Conservative government but previous administrations, the NHS had been starved of resources such as ventilators and intensive care beds.”
1/5. On Oct 14, France may have reached its lowest level (4,463) of new #COVID19 cases, while still decreasing to 19 deaths/d. by Oct 20, R-eff=1.02, red, now plateauing; 75.7% 1 dose.
3/5 - Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (R-eff=0.83) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, close to reach it, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.