1/11 - “[The UK], a nation that is one of the world’s most mature democracies and prided itself on the quality of its governance ended up with one of the highest death tolls per capita of any big economy, its fumbling equalled perhaps only by the US.”
ft.com/content/6369ab…
2/11 - “The first official report into what went wrong, a joint inquiry by two MPs’ committees, sheds valuable, if damning, light. It holds lessons not just for Britain but for others on how better to confront future health emergencies.”committees.parliament.uk/work/657/coron…
3/11 - “One is to maintain constant readiness, but also to prepare for the right risks. Though this was not the fault of Boris Johnson’s Conservative government but previous administrations, the NHS had been starved of resources such as ventilators and intensive care beds.”
4/11 - “Its pandemic planning failed to learn from Sars, Mers and Ebola — notably on the dangers of novel diseases spreading from animals — and was based too inflexibly on the assumption that the next pandemic would be flu or something similar.”
5/11 - “Once the pandemic came, the report’s central insight can be summarised thus: the Johnson government “followed the science” so unquestioningly that politicians and scientists fell prey to a form of groupthink — and the groupthink was fatalistic, and flawed.”
6/11 - “Mechanisms for offering scientific advice were insular, secretive and lacked external challenge. Above all, they took not nearly enough account of approaches elsewhere, such as the most strenuous containment efforts by east Asian countries.”
7/11 - “Though other countries in Europe and North America initially adopted a similarly “fatalistic” approach, the report says UK ministers accepted for too long the notion that the virus could not be effectively suppressed, and the pop. would not tolerate a lengthy lockdown.”
8/11 - “When the UK strategy did change dramatically, and belatedly in late March 2020, to accept the need for a lockdown, this was because of “domestic concerns that the NHS could be overwhelmed” rather than a serious decision to follow emerging international best practice.”
9/11 -“The MPs rightly contrast the flaws of the initial handling with the success of the UK’s vacc prog.Britain was early to invest in vacc resch.Allowing results of clinical trials to be submitted on a rolling basis enabled it to be the first western country to approve a vacc.”
10/11 - “in hindsight, the most effective response would have been to combine the Asia-Pacific approach — border restrictions, lockdowns, and strenuous test-and-trace to suppress infection — and the western focus on swift vaccinations once available.”
11/11 - “Most large economies fell down on one side of this two-sided approach. For those like the UK that fumbled the former, however, the cost in lives has been far higher.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

15 Oct
1/4 - France, Suisse, Italie, Espagne et Portugal: sont-ils les derniers bastions de calme sur le front #COVID19?
L'étau pandémique se resserre.
La très forte activité épidémique à l'est et au centre de l'Europe semble désormais percoler vers l'ouest (DE,AU,DK, NL, BE, UK, IRL).
2/4 - Les semaines à venir pourraient sceller l'évolution de la pandémie en Europe cet hiver:
Les nations très vaccinées qui ont conservé passe sanitaire et port du masque résisteront-elles mieux et plus longtemps que celles qui ne misent que sur leur forte couverture vaccinale?
3/4 - On constate que là où la couverture vaccinale est inférieure à 50%, les pays (Russie, Roumanie) rencontrent de grandes difficultés à juguler la vague de mortalité et l'engorgement de leurs hôpitaux. Ceux qui dépassent 70%, sans mesures associées (UK, IRL), souffrent aussi.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1/9 - Oct 15 to Oct 21 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Europe -
Three #COVID19 zones:
- Green: Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9) landing [close to safe zones]: ALB; Bos&Herz; [CH; NO]
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others:
FR=1.04; PT=1.05, moving away from their safe zones;
PL=1.19; DK=1.18; NL=1.19, IRL=1.14 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.14, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.14 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.18 (17.6%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.15 (45.3%)
Read 11 tweets
15 Oct
1/3. By Oct 21, the United Kingdom can reach 43,851 new #COVID19 cases and 123 deaths daily, if the reproductive rate remains same (R-eff=1.07).
73.9% received 1 dose.

Forecasts for nations from Oct 15 to Oct 21.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/3 - England (R-eff=1.08) and Northern-Ireland=1.07 are experiencing increase again, at high level, in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] level of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/3 - Scotland (R-eff=0.95); and Wales=0.92 are slowly landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, from high levels of activity, with medium mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
1/5. BREAKING NEWS!!!
From Oct 20, France (R-eff=1.04) is foreseen to leave its threshold defined as > 5,000 new #COVID19 cases/day, while decreasing in mortality.
75.6% 1 dose.
Regional forecasts for Oct 15 to 21.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Five Régions are now increasing or plateauing above their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Hauts-de-France=1.05;
Pays-de-la-Loire=1.03;
Ile-de-France=1.01;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.01;
Corse=0.98.
3/5 - Nine Régions have reached their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes;
Bourgogne-et-Franche-Comté;
Bretagne;
Centre-Val-de-Loire;
Grand-Est;
Normandie;
Occitanie;

Mayotte;
Réunion.
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
1/9 - Oct 14 to Oct 20 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 195 countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Europe -
There are 3 #COVID19 zones in Europe:
- Green in Spain and Italy;
- Orange (R-eff <0.9), landing [close to safe zones] [CH; NO]; ALB; Macedon;
- Red (R-eff>0.9) in all others.
FR=1.02 and PT=1.05, close to safe zones;
PL=1.20; DK=1.19; NL=1.24 are rising again.
3/9 - Europe (cont'd)
East and Central Europe is experiencing strong waves of #COVID19, very high to alarming mortality, for 7 more d.
Romania (R-eff=1.15, 31.8% 1 dose); Latvia=1.22 (51.1%); Bulgaria=1.13 (37.2%); Ukraine=1.19 (17.1%); Russia=1.08 (34.2%);
Slovakia=1.16 (45.3%)
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
1/5. On Oct 14, France may have reached its lowest level (4,463) of new #COVID19 cases, while still decreasing to 19 deaths/d. by Oct 20, R-eff=1.02, red, now plateauing; 75.7% 1 dose.

Forecasts for Oct 14 to 29.
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/5 - Eleven Régions have reached their #COVID19 safety zones, and will stay in them, with low to very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days:

Auv-Rhône-Alp
Bourg-et-Fr-Comté;
Bretag;
Centre-Val-de-L;
Grand-Est;
Hauts-de-Fr;
Normandie;
Nouv-Aquit;
Occitan;

Mayotte;
Réunion.
3/5 - Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (R-eff=0.83) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, close to reach it, with very low mortality, for 7 more days.
Read 7 tweets

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