just got around going through #celsiusnetwork financials for Dec 2020 accounts. (see my previous posts re:$150m secured debt). I probably won't finish off the analysis until end of the week (pulling all the data into sheets is a pain). here's something to make you go 🤔
For clarity even though its a UK company all figures are in US'000.....which means the assets shown are US$4.709B and 'net assets' are US$1.44B.....I'll admit. once I realized the numbers were billions not millions....I was kinda impressed... 
...I should say cautiously impressed....how did they go from $290M net assets to $1.5B in 10 months?
Turns out its just simple arithmetic.....The 'treasury' is the retained CEL tokens that weren't sold into the market at $0.30 but cost them nothing.....are marked to market adding $1.5B to the balance sheet.
before coiners go mad...what's the big deal? Why the FUD....you don't understand...... I'm not saying Celsius are dodgy....I'm not suggesting they are bandits and thieves.....All I am doing is digging into the numbers.
UK accounts are typically bland and sparse...they are often crap quality PDFs pain to OCR and extract the financial tables from....but they are free to access and even the worst set of accounts is 100x better than the shit #tether has been gasslighting the market with
To rebuild the financials in google sheets, source what other data I can, chase down references, drag in price/volume charts, source some data on the holders....I will easily rip up 10-12hrs. Which is more than the total hrs most crypto muppets will rack up in total.
Also bear in mind this is not a complete view of the group and while the accounts were filed this month they are nearly a year out of date. The attached is far from a complete group structure
So back to the balance sheet.....So assuming the CEL treasury wallet holds the treasury tokens....and that wallet represents 16% of total tokens....you start to get a view on materiality.......and then you can start thinking about risk.
So clearly #celsius wouldn't be able to realise even a fraction of the $1.5b if it belted them into the market. So should they be allowed to value them at market price?
For me if a group can navigate through the accounting standards, get signed off by an auditor, disclosures that I can at least sift through, have a business model that attracts outside investment and everyone is on the same playing field.... then yeah I can roll with that.
But.....that's assuming some very basic fundamentals. The market in which those assets you are underpinning not just your balance sheet but the market that is the very fabric of your business....is real....large, distributed, liquid....
as I said I still assembling the data....which I'll share out over the next few days....i'll leave these final thoughts to consider in the context of my comments
Is this a large market? Is it a liquid distributed market with sufficient independent market makers and traders?
revaluing an illiquid position of near 20% of a $3B-5B market on your balance sheet after it has gone for a 1500% run in 10 month's is one thing.
But having controlling 50% of the market directly (holding another 10% PA) and being the majority beneficiary of the 80% that was sold at 1/12 of what it is now valued...Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
unroll @threadreaderapp
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