Jakal Profile picture
25 Oct, 18 tweets, 5 min read
just got around going through #celsiusnetwork financials for Dec 2020 accounts. (see my previous posts re:$150m secured debt). I probably won't finish off the analysis until end of the week (pulling all the data into sheets is a pain). here's something to make you go 🤔
For clarity even though its a UK company all figures are in US'000.....which means the assets shown are US$4.709B and 'net assets' are US$1.44B.....I'll admit. once I realized the numbers were billions not millions....I was kinda impressed...
...I should say cautiously impressed....how did they go from $290M net assets to $1.5B in 10 months?
Turns out its just simple arithmetic.....The 'treasury' is the retained CEL tokens that weren't sold into the market at $0.30 but cost them nothing.....are marked to market adding $1.5B to the balance sheet.
before coiners go mad...what's the big deal? Why the FUD....you don't understand...... I'm not saying Celsius are dodgy....I'm not suggesting they are bandits and thieves.....All I am doing is digging into the numbers.
UK accounts are typically bland and sparse...they are often crap quality PDFs pain to OCR and extract the financial tables from....but they are free to access and even the worst set of accounts is 100x better than the shit #tether has been gasslighting the market with
To rebuild the financials in google sheets, source what other data I can, chase down references, drag in price/volume charts, source some data on the holders....I will easily rip up 10-12hrs. Which is more than the total hrs most crypto muppets will rack up in total.
Also bear in mind this is not a complete view of the group and while the accounts were filed this month they are nearly a year out of date. The attached is far from a complete group structure
So back to the balance sheet.....So assuming the CEL treasury wallet holds the treasury tokens....and that wallet represents 16% of total tokens....you start to get a view on materiality.......and then you can start thinking about risk.
So clearly #celsius wouldn't be able to realise even a fraction of the $1.5b if it belted them into the market. So should they be allowed to value them at market price?
For me if a group can navigate through the accounting standards, get signed off by an auditor, disclosures that I can at least sift through, have a business model that attracts outside investment and everyone is on the same playing field.... then yeah I can roll with that.
But.....that's assuming some very basic fundamentals. The market in which those assets you are underpinning not just your balance sheet but the market that is the very fabric of your business....is real....large, distributed, liquid....
as I said I still assembling the data....which I'll share out over the next few days....i'll leave these final thoughts to consider in the context of my comments
Is this a large market? Is it a liquid distributed market with sufficient independent market makers and traders?
revaluing an illiquid position of near 20% of a $3B-5B market on your balance sheet after it has gone for a 1500% run in 10 month's is one thing.
But having controlling 50% of the market directly (holding another 10% PA) and being the majority beneficiary of the 80% that was sold at 1/12 of what it is now valued...Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

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More from @intel_jakal

11 Oct
I've been asked a couple of times how I was able to aggregate the daily #tether transparency pages so I thought I'd share the data.
Shared googlesheet >>> bit.ly/3iQ3W5U #OSINT
While you could scrape the html table direct from the transparency page its only provides the last 24hours.
Wayback machine captures the page multiple times per month. Use the IMPORTHTML function (USDT is "table 3")
Tether gold is "Table 6". As XAUT is reported in 'oz' and note $ and only issued on Eth. The empty columns have been removed and converted to US$m using daily #gold price from gold.org
Read 5 tweets
12 Jun
@CasPiancey @BennettTomlin @ThinkPolOfficer One of the niftiest SNA I did on #quadriga's #paytrn was scraping #michaelxbt google+ links. I would have been able to pull even more degrees of connections if I had thought of it earlier.
Link analysis >>
@CasPiancey @BennettTomlin @ThinkPolOfficer As the week I was pulling the data was literally the same week that google began to shut down the service. Over time the profile images also disappeared as I had just used the image lines direct from the google+ account
@CasPiancey @BennettTomlin @ThinkPolOfficer I remember there was quite a bit of interaction with #lifeboat's #ericklien. It was also obvious that he was pretty tight with that muppet #francispoiliut who nominated #patryn as a director for the #bitcoinfoundation.
Read 12 tweets
15 May
@ebit4u Every country has a certain comparative advantage over others. This is what Cyprus does best so in acknowledgement that these start-ups have tiny tiny tiny micro lives they make sure there is high throughput, rapid turnover and tiny little fines when they get caught
@ebit4u kinda genius nurturing 10x the volume of startups, means 10x the licensing and end of life fines keeps the costs down ensuring they can be up and running quick as a flash.
@ebit4u Lets look at the #teman family as one that's managed to grow a couple of brands and while yes the copped a fine at the end of each run it was never such that it hurt their entrepreneurial spirit.
Read 24 tweets
14 May
Following the release of #tether's distended testicle I mean attestation. I attempted to reconstruct some numbers....as mentioned only additional information I was able to yield was there was an additional $13m of undisclosed debt.
Armed with the donkey boys amazing double barrel pie chart I've added to the original analysis. The same doc previously shared which I'll share again at the end.
Ironically It's highly likely I've spent more hours on Tether's accounts in the last week than they have collectively in the last couple of years.
Read 15 tweets
9 May
@haydentiff @NitrousDelivery @BennettTomlin So the fake unlicensed Gambian entity was the first Euro EXIM "group company" it would have been setup (and sold) as turn key "shelf company" - Gambian incorporated with banking license and #probanx banking software (more than half these fake Gambian companies
@haydentiff @NitrousDelivery @BennettTomlin not only turned out to be fake/unlicensed companies that #probank provided banking software for but Probanx were the facilitators of registering the domains/branding etc. >>> here's the list
@haydentiff @NitrousDelivery @BennettTomlin So as you can see from the certificate the company was incorporated in Feb 2015 and the certificate showing the acquirers name is 8 May 2015. This date's important.
Read 11 tweets
13 Feb
@FinTelegram In your #itradefx article I see you were able to confirm #pradexx as their payment processor. I looked at the sub-domain uiservices.pradexx.com checking its IP address provides a pretty interesting list of other 'brands'

fintelegram.com/pradexx-again-… ImageImage
@FinTelegram I see #pradex and their dodgy partners are still spinning up new reskins of their scammy sites. Keep an eye out for #ftspaysolutions #kopayment #payotop #securepayment3d Image
The four mentioned 'rebrands' have been added since the beginning of March 2021. Image
Read 6 tweets

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