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29 Oct, 4 tweets, 5 min read
Remarkable framing shift ahead of #COP26

While "close to 1.5C" is politically more plausible than "limit to 1.5C", it's quite ambiguous, similarly to already established "well below 2C"

Is this the new language incorporating (initial) overshoot of 1.5C?

politico.eu/article/why-th…
Some background on #IPCC WG1 projections for threshold 1.5C crossing times under different scenarios, explained by @hausfath for @CarbonBrief
carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…
"Constructive ambiguity" is a useful tool to reach agreement under #UNFCCC. But problematic that #ParisAgreement doesn't exclude or at least sets clear constraints for 1.5C overshoot. Creates way too much flexibility
See our 2017 @NatureGeosci piece
rdcu.be/cAqml #COP26
Despite missing #ParisAgreement guidance, #IPCC & climate research community define compliance w/ 1.5C goal as overshoot return by 2100. This requirement might slowly move into language of #UNFCCC COP decisions, has worked before with "2C by 2100"
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ #COP26

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More from @Oliver_Geden

Oliver Geden Profile picture
29 Oct
How will climate negotiators deal with diminishing carbon budget for 1.5C?
Some thoughts from our recent @OneEarth_CP paper "#UNFCCC must confront the political economy of net-negative emissions"
Now available #OpenAccess for 2 months
cell.com/one-earth/full… #COP26
(1/n)
Paper led by @aniruddh_mohan, co-authored with @MathiasFridahl, @hollyjeanbuck & @Peters_Glen
cell.com/one-earth/full… #COP26
(2/n)
Basic problem is quite easy to understand. We're very close to 1.5C, and even if you think it's still possible to stay within the remaining carbon budget (<500 Gt), this would mean that every country needs to reach net zero pretty soon.
#COP26
(3/n)
Read 10 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
9 Aug
IPCC #AR6 WGI report on the physical science basis of climate change is out today.
Find the the Summary for Policymakers and the Full Report here ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[1/n]
Here's a short thread on Carbon Dioxide Removal, and how the #IPCC #AR6 WGI assessment (led by @KirstenZickfeld) relates to the WGIII report (due in March 2022)
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
[2/n]
First, some important context on remaining carbon budgets, pathways and net-zero emissions - since it doesn't make any sense to talk about Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) in isolation.
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/
#IPCC #AR6
[3/n]
Read 15 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
14 Jul
Finally, here's @EU_Commission's #Fitfor55 package, to adjust EU #climate policy legislation to move from original 40% reduction target to 55% by 2030 (vs 1990)
Remember: these are only proposals, decision eventually to be made by @EUCouncil & @Europarl_EN ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/… Image
detailed #Fitfor55 proposals to be found at bottom of the page ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/…
The new Effort Sharing table
Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Finland move to -50% (2030 vs 2005)
#Fitfor55
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def… Image
Read 5 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
15 Jun
The inconvenient truth about the #renewables boom in a world of growing energy consumption. Share of fossil fuels basically unchanged 2009-2019.
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report'
ren21.net/reports/global…
The 11.2% #renewables share excludes so-called 'traditional biomass' (e.g., wood for cookstoves). Even then, share of #bioenergy among renewables still considerable
From @REN21's new 'Renewables 2021 Global Status Report'
ren21.net/reports/global…
You might have heard #renewables overtook fossil fuels in new infrastructure but this usually only refers to power sector & only to capacity not generation. Picture for whole energy system rather bleak
From @REN21's new Renewables 2021 Global Status Report
ren21.net/reports/global…
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
27 Jan
A crucial aspect still unclear in Biden administration's #climate policy plan. Does "net-zero economy by 2050" cover all greenhouse gases (like in EU) or only CO2 (like US 2035 target for power sector)?
Net-zero GHG is much more ambitious than net-zero CO2
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Net zero GHG is much harder to achieve than net zero CO2. In global scenarios, it takes 10-20 years longer
swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…
Main reason is that non-CO2 emissions like nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) are much harder or impossible to eliminate, so they need to be counterbalanced by CO2 removal, which takes longer.
Below global pathways. For countries, it depends on their specific emissions profile
Read 6 tweets
Oliver Geden Profile picture
22 Oct 20
Major step forward for German #climate debate today, with study from @Prognos_AG, @oekoinstitut & @Wupperinst, The first report on net zero GHGs based on sound modelling
A quick look at Carbon Dioxide Removal
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
@AgoraEW, @agoraverkehr @StiftungKlima
[1/n]
Study assumes 95% conventional mitigation, making it one of the more ambitious for industrialized countries (CCC for UK & COM for EU: ~90%, see swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2020R…)
Residual emissions mainly from agriculture & industry, aviation already at zero
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
[2/n]
Carbon Dioxide Removal is slightly higher than residual emissions (64 vs, 62 Mt), mainly consisting of Bioenergy with CCS (mostly in industry, not in power sector) and Direct Air Capture with CO2 storage
Scenario does not rely on LULUCF sink
agora-energiewende.de/en/press/news-…
[3/n]
Read 7 tweets

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