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29 Oct, 9 tweets, 8 min read
#DeGea’s ability to deal with crosses has quite rightly been criticised.

In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 6 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses!

My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.14 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson of #LFC has prevented 18 opposition chances occurring by claiming crosses & #Alisson has played 90 fewer minutes!

This difference in cross claiming ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.36 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Additionally #DeGea’s sweeping numbers have also been low this season.

In the #PremierLeague #DeGea has only prevented 4 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs!

My model finds this lack of activity means #MUFC concede on average an additional 0.07 ExG every game!
In comparison #Alisson has prevented 10 opposition chances occurring by sweeping throughballs in 90 fewer minutes!

This difference in sweeping ability corresponds to #LFC facing on average roughly 0.08 fewer ExG per game in comparison to #MUFC!
Overall this means in order for #DeGea to perform at just an average #PremierLeague level he needs to save shots at a rate of 0.21 ExG above average per 90!

& while #DeGea’s shotstopping has been exceptional this year he’s currently saving #MUFC 0.16 ExG above average per 90!
Claiming & sweeping rarely get statistically analysed properly & in fairness they aren’t as important as shot stopping but as the above example shows if you have a GK that is poor at both claiming & sweeping they need to be a crazy shotstopper just to break even!

Full model👇🏻
One thing I would add is be wary of the cross claim & sweeping numbers you see on the #PremierLeague website & other stats websites like fbref.

Their models are not built for GKs & thus have big definitional issues which cause them to often miss many chance preventing actions!
For example for #DeGea this season:

PL website
3 claims
2 sweeps

Fbref
4 claims
2 sweeps

Video footage
10 claims
(6 which prevent chances)

12 sweeps
(4 which prevent chances)
For example for #Alisson this season:

PL website
14 claims
8 sweeps

Fbref
7 claims
11 sweeps

Video footage
24 claims
(18 which prevent chances)

25 sweeps
(10 which prevent chances)

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More from @Jhdharrison1

John Harrison Profile picture
23 Oct
I’ve seen this describe as a wonder save but it’s a decision making error followed by a good recovery

My 1v1 model predicts this to be scored 2% of the time if the GK holds deep while if the GK rushes, like #Mendy, it is scored 64% of the time

He made it way harder for himself!
I think #Mendy is a top GK by the way & he’s made many great saves this season but just because a GK is good doesn’t mean we should praise them regardless of how good their goalkeeping actually is!

Outcomes shouldn’t dictate analysis, processes should!
If anything this save should actually worry #Chelsea fans a bit as it is reminiscent of an issue #Mendy had last year when he gave away soft goals vs #LUFC & #EFC

Hopefully for #CFC fans it was a 1 off bad decision & it won’t happen again unlike in the middle part of last year.
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
23 Oct
#Ramsdale’s distribution last night was unreal!

All 12 of his open play passes resulted in unpressurised #AFC possession & made it more likely that #AFC scored next!

Additionally 7 of those passes successfully broke #AVFC lines & took multiple players out of the game!

#FNF
What a ball this was

It’s unbelievable awareness to spot the run, then exceptional technique to pick it out!

Being able to set up 2 v 3 situations from the GK is so useful

This pass was certainly the standout moment for me but importantly it was not an isolated incident at all
This pass map is genuinely outrageous!

I don’t think I have ever seen a GK record a 100% successful & positive open play game where they were pressed on 40% of their passes & where they attempted to break the oppositions formation with 67% of their passes!
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
22 Oct
Ah I feel for #Martinez, shuffling around on his line pre shot & ending up on the left side of his goal cost him those extra inches that would’ve allowed him to parry the ball away from danger!

At the same time it was potentially the movement that put PEM off so it’s a hard one!
Obviously it was a top top penalty save but you could instantly tell by #Martinez’s reaction that he was gutted with the fact he didn’t manage to push it out wide.

I don’t think #Martinez should be too harsh on himself thought as I think it was just smart timing from Auba
I always say to penalty takers if the GK bounces around side to side on the line time it so they are on the wrong side as you strike the ball as their weight will all be on that side & it will be very difficult for them to get all the way across goal & that’s what Auba did
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
22 Oct
What a forced out of position 1v1 save from #Martinez!

His foot speed to get across is excellent & his decision to dive left pre-shot to get his body in-line with the ball is also class!

This was Emi’s 5th FOOP 1v1 save since 19/20!

No #PL GK has made more!

#AVFC #AFC #FNF
Definition: A forced out of position 1v1 is a 1v1 which occurs either after a rebound, ricochet, or cross which results in a 1v1 situation where the GK could not possibly be inline with the ball as the situation starts & needs to reposition quickly to make the save
As you can imagine forced out of position 1v1s are scored over 80% of the time & saving them is very difficult but basically the only way to give yourself a chance is to combine quick footspeed, determination, a willingness not to give up, & a tidy execution of the smother
Read 4 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
21 Oct
I don’t often post videos of myself playing but given I dropped a 15 save MotM performance for @oldthorntonians last weekend I thought it would be interesting to post my favourite 4 & run a poll to see which save people think is the best!

(See thread below for videos)

#GKUnion
Save A:

I particularly enjoyed my pulsing feet & constant little readjustments pre save & use of the collapse dive to make this save. I also enjoyed how I manipulated the ball & guided it out for a corner rather than putting it back into danger.
Save B:

I was poorly positioned initially but quick footwork & use of the cross over step allowed me to get across & make the save.

Additionally I was very happy with the fact I got my top hand across as without it I don’t think I would’ve got it into the bar.
Read 7 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
30 Sep
This is my favourite #DeGea #UCL save from yesterday

Because it didn’t require athleticism or reflexes it required calmness & good decision making!

38% of the time a 1v1 in that position results in a goal but after DDGs decision to rush back to his line & wait this falls to 7%! ImageImageImageImage
#DeGea showed you don’t need to start deep to get into such a position, he was over 12yrd out & was ready to sweep if he had to but because he made the decision to drop & react so quickly & confidently he managed to use his wonderful fast footwork to get back in time.

#MUFC #UCL Image
This save is another example of how the best GKs in the world make difficult moments look easy & make finishes harder for strikers & thus force them into hitting poor inaccurate shots

If you are interested in where my %’s come they are calculated by my 1v1 model see thread below
Read 5 tweets

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