What exactly is the US alarmed about? That TDF/TPLF finally puts an end to #TigrayGenocide committed by US ally Abiy Ahmed in #Ethiopia? When has the US and the West ever done something to stop genocide? Some history that doesn't square well 🧵1/8
Remember that the Rwandan genocide was not stopped by external intervention. Western troops pulled out! The Rwandan genocide also didn't just magically stop. The only reason the slaughter ended was because of the military victory by the Rwandan Patriotic Front: Tutsi rebels! 2/8
Most likely that's still better than in Bosnia, where Western troops handed civilians to their murderers of the Serbian Army in Srebrenica. Ok, you might think that's a bit harsh because how about the Holocaust after all? Surely, the US & its allies liberated Nazi Germany. 3/8
Yes, they did so together with the Soviets, who liberated Auschwitz. But let's be clear: no one would have ever intervened in the Holocaust if Hitler hadn't started WW2. The end of the Holocaust was a bi-product of Allied victory, not motivation. Small but important detail 4/8
But how about Kosovo, Libya and the so-called R2P? R2P was ever only evoked by UNSC in the contexts of Libya & Côte d'Ivoire in 2011. Civilians suffered horrendous violence in all these cases, but neither case was a genocide. All they had in common was Western self-interest. 5/8
The only successful external interventions that were explicitly motivated to stop genocide, which come to my mind fwiw, have a very different thing in common: they've been led by non-Western states at the height of Third Worldism, when a more just world seemed possible. 6/8
These included India's intervention to stop mass atrocities in East Pakistan as part of Bangladesh's liberation war in 1971, Tanzania's intervention in Idi Amin's Uganda under Julius Nyerere in 1978/9 & Vietnam's ousting of the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia in 1978. 7/8
Western states decried all these interventions for threatening international order & stability. It's bewildering how the world has ever looked to US/Western leadership to stop mass atrocities. It doesn't square with historical record only with liberal self-delusion. 8/8
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As Ethiopia's regime is about to collapse under the military pressure of the #Tigray & #Oromo resistance, Barkawi's & Laffey's writing comes to mind (again): awaiting liberation at the hands of the West is as pointless today as it's always been, in #Ethiopia as in #Myanmar 🧵 1/3
All that the West, inc. Abyi Ahmed's US allies, did was talking about humanitarian aid & a few sanctions in the context of genocide. Tigrayans have chosen not to await this kind of "liberation" and have managed to fight back against what was said to be Africa's strongest army 2/3
Let's bear this in mind for next time when Western diplomats reflexively denounce the armed struggle of people against genocidal regimes for the sake of some international stability and order. 3/3
These days I am often asked whether a Federal Army (FA) in #Myanmar can actually materialise to the point that it poses a challenge to the Tatmadaw, one of the world's largest militaries
Sure, the creation of a Federal Army faces many challenges, not least real resource constraints, such as a lack of funds and access to weapons & collective action problems across the spectrum of armed groups in Myanmar. That's a no-brainer which everyone involved understands 2/10
That said, I believe that what is happening here is significant and can indeed pose a challenge to the Tatmadaw, not necessarily as a fighting force on the ground but as an idea in the formation of a new Myanmar. I believe this for several reason: 3/10
Supporting #Myanmar’s generals has a long tradition for Germany and its companies since the dictatorship of Gen Ne Win. The most immediate relic of this is the wide-spread use of German-designed G3 rifles by Myanmar’s security forces
Some thoughts 🧵 1/6 #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
While more modern Chinese MA rifles have gradually become the Tatmadaw’s murder tool of choice, the G3 has long been the standard rifle of Myanmar’s security forces, be it in their wars against EAOs, the genocide against Rohingya or massacres of civilian protestors then & now 2/6
This is not least because Germany’s Heckler and Koch did not only sell thousands of G3 rifles (& MG42 machine guns) to Myanmar since 1960s. Germany also helped the Tatmadaw to establish weapon factories in order to produce these murder tools itself. This started in 1953 ... 3/6
Great thread by @ZweLwinMyanmar: urging people not to panic over fake news about Chinese soldiers in #Myanmar, to consider evidence carefully & to question how fake news only help the Tatmadaw. In his words: "Keep calm & analyse!"
.@ZweLwinMyanmar makes excellent points about photos being used out of context & the lacking credibility of Burmese police shouting in Chinese. Please read his thread.
I could not agree more, even though we all appreciate how frightening the situation is.
2/8
I also doubt the authenticity of this viral video in which one can hear Burmese police shouting 1, 2, 3 in Chinese. The sound bits seems superimposed on the original sound that continues underneath. This is the age of fake news and anyone with a computer can do this easily. 3/8
We need to seriously stop fabricating baseless rumours that Chinese soldiers are in #Myanmar. They are not and they will not be. Outside observers claiming anything else is senseless, irresponsible and dangerous.
I understand that people in Myanmar are afraid and that media restriction and secrecy on side of the Tatmadaw is aiding this kind of fake news. There's a reason why "rumour" has such a prominent place in Myanmar politics after decades of dictatorship. I can't blame them. 2/10
However, these fears are not only baseless but dangerous: The Tatmadaw has enough soldiers to brutally suppress protests. No need for a few Chinese foot soldiers. More importantly the Tatmadaw is the most anti-Chinese institution in the country and would never agree to that 3/10
This is actually big news and devastating for the KNU. It is also very illustrative of the state of the peace process under ASSK as well as what might come for EAOs and peace in #Myanmar more generally. #MyanmarCoup
Mahn Nyein Maung (MNM) has also been called Burma's Papillon for his "miraculous" escape from the high security prison on Coco Island aka “Burma's Devil's Island” He was then imprisoned again in Insein and released with the KNU ceasefire in 2012 after which he returned to KNU 2/5
I interviewed MNM in 2013 when he insisted that then semi-military administration of U Thein Sein (former Tatmadaw General) was a peace-loving government that the KNU should trust. Needless to say not everyone in the KNU agreed, especially with rampaging ceasefire capitalism 3/5