An options investment strategy based on our #BASON predictions has delivered a 49.9% return since May, compared to a 10% passive S&P return.

And all that while not even running during August and September!

A quick thread on how it works? 👇🧵 Image
1/ This 50% return is actually severely underestimated, given that we took a portfolio of $10,000 where we only invest $1000 each week (the risk is greater actually, we risk to lose $1000 used to buy the call options, and $600 on the iron condor).
2/ What options strategy do we use? Each week we invest $1,000 (risk $1,600) into:
(1) an iron condor strategy that uses the BASON prediction’s confidence intervals for the $SPY, and
(2) an $SPY call (or put) option based on the predicted direction for that week.
3/ This means we only risk 16% of the portfolio each week for options strategies based on our predictions. Hence the need to have a larger initial allocation and compare the *total* returns to a passive index-holding strategy.
4/ Also, keep in mind that these trades were only with $SPY options, no other indicators or stocks were used, meaning that the returns could have been even more impressive.
5/ For example, for last week, you could have also made a small fortune on $TSLA stocks, where we predicted the price to end up at $1,100 dollars.
Buying $TSLA call options even on Wednesday (when the price was $1,030) would have been quite lucrative.
6/ What is it all based on? The weekly BASON predictions on several indicators that stocks that we run.

Last week, e.g., our BASON predictions had a 0.2% accuracy for the S&P and 0.05% accuracy for the Dow!

7/ In addition, 8 out of 9 of our indicators were called correctly, and 7 out of 9 were called within 2% accuracy.

The numbers speak for themselves: ImageImage
8/ Also, last week, the options strategies paid off.

The iron condor expired and made us the initial $400, while the $SPY call ended up giving us a $611 profit before we sold on Friday. The return was therefore $1,011, or 101% on the initial $1,000 for that week.
9/ So stick around, participate in our survey competition regularly to get this info early, and try make some profits from it.

And, of course, subscribe to the newsletter to keep track of it :)
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More from @wolf_vukovic

23 Dec
2021 has been a great year for our #BASON predictions @OraclumIS

Why?

Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!

A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇 Image
1/ First, how does #BASON work?
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.

Here’s a video explaining it:
2/ We’ve been running the whole thing as a survey competition where we asked stock market enthusiasts to give their predictions on the weekly movements of Dow, S&P500, BTC, WTI oil price, and the 10Y yield + 4 stocks: $AAPL , $TSLA , $GME , $AMC ImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
15 Nov
What’s a yield curve? Why is it important? Why the inverted relationship btw bond yields and prices? And why do investors keep obsessing about it?

Everything you wanted to know about bond yields and the yield curve but were too afraid to ask – explained 😊 (27-point thread)👇🧵
1/ You’re probably aware that the 10-Y T-bill yield shot up from 0.5% in July ‘20 to 1.1% in Jan ’21, and then to its 1.7% March peak.
It fell back to 1.2% in Jul, shot up to 1.6% in mid-Oct, and is jumping around from one inflation report to the next.

Why does this matter?
2/ What does it even mean when bond yields rise?

Usually, it is a sign that demand is moving away from T-bills and into other higher-return assets, which is what typically happens during recoveries.

But this time, however, this is also due to higher #inflation expectations.
Read 28 tweets
9 Nov
Last week the #BASON once again called 8 out of 9 in the right direction, and once again had pinpoint accuracy for the Dow (0.6% error), the S&P (1.2% error), oil (0.5% error), TSLA (1.9% error), while the AAPL price prediction was almost perfect (0.02% error!).
In terms of collected profits on the trading strategy, this was the best week yet.

Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!

This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Two strategies were used for the week:

(1) iron condor for the SPY 05/11, at 460/461 to 469/470

The S&P500 ended at 4697, but the SPY ended just below our upper interval, at 468.5, allowing us to capture the full $400 from its initial sale. Close, but in the money :)
Read 8 tweets
8 Nov
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has gone down 52% since its early October peak (largest peak since '08)

Last time it went down so quickly was just before the '08 crisis, announcing the collapse of international trade.

But in today's context, is this good news or bad news?
👇🧵
1/ The BDI, listed on the London-based Baltic Exchange, measures the costs of transporting various important raw materials by sea (e.g. coal, iron ore, grain).

It takes into account shipping routes, timing of delivery, ship capacity, and is a widely used benchmark in shipping.
2/ Generally, it is also considered to be a very important leading economic indicator:

When it goes 📈 , it signals high demand for shipping and hence booming international trade. 👍

When it goes 📉 it signals a decline of demand, and an upcoming economic crisis. 👎
Read 13 tweets
24 Oct
There has been ample talk about an upcoming market #crash ever since, well, the previous crash.

People point to, among other things, Shiller’s CAPE ratio, at a 38 multiple (second highest ever).

How do we know if we really are in a #bubble? A thread is due.
Let’s dive in👇🧵
1/ Is there anything we can use to tell whether a market is indeed in a bubble? To borrow a quote from The Big Short:

Lawrence Fields: “Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.”

Michael Burry: “That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers.”
2/ Let’s examine those “markers” by revisiting what the top authority on market irrationality and exuberance has to say about it – Nobel winner @RobertJShiller

His book Irrational Exuberance anticipated both the 2000 dot-com bubble burst and the 2006 housing bubble burst.
Read 26 tweets
21 Oct
Today $DWAC went up 365% after a merger with #Trump’s new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the idea of which is to launch an alternative social network to disrupt the FAANGs.

I read TMTG’s pitch deck (did MY OWN research!!!) and here’s what I think👇🧵
1/ The idea is to create a new media powerhouse, with a streaming and news service that aims to disrupt CNN, $NFLX & $DIS+ (Fox news too?), and take on $AMZN in the long run.

The biggest impact ofc was the announcement of launching a new social network to disrupt $FB and $TWTR
2/ The name of the new social network? TRUTH Social.

Mission: “stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech.”

The premise: $TWTR and $FB banned Trump from their platforms but did not ban the Taliban.
Read 16 tweets

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