Ok, lets talk #CFBPlayoff Poll. Time is limited this morning so lets just run through the Top 15. For those of you who signed up as a patron (thank you) or those who have followed long; you know the drill. There is no eye test. The committee uses a well defined process. 🧵
If you read this on Monday, last night was all old news and you already knew what to expect. If you like the suspense of the four letter network's reveal show be warned. #SpoilerAlert
15 #BYU
SOS: 44, QW: 5, T25W: 0, GC: 4.9

#BYU modeled at 17, so no surprise here. Good SOS, Tied for the most QWs in the poll. Game Control is low, but with a SOS in the Top 50, they'll get a pass. No surprise at 15.
14 #TAMU
SOS: 67, QW: 1, T25W: 1, GC: 13.5

#GigEm modeled at 14 so this was spot on. Absolutely no surprises here. Decent SOS, Game Control on the low end, but they do have 1 T25W along with 1 QW. Right where expected.
13 #Auburn
SOS: 17, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 15.1

#WarEagle modeled at 13 so once again this was dead on. No surprise. Excellent SOS, Game Control just ok but w/ a SOS that high an ok GC is really good. 2 QWs and 1T25W were just icing.
12 #Baylor
SOS: 64, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 18.0

#SicEm modeled at 12 so again, no surprise. Getting redundant already. Moderate SOS, 2 QWs, 1 T25W. Game Control is good at 18. Right where expected.
11 #OkState
SOS: 42, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 11.4

#GoPokes modeled at 10 so this is right near where they should be. No surprise. Good SOS, 2 QWs, 1 T25W. Game Control is low which keeps them outside the Top 10 for now.
10 #NotreDame
SOS: 32, QW: 2, T25W:0, GC: 8.1

#GoIrish modeled at 11 so this is again, right where they should be. Similar problems as OkState in that they have very low Game Control. SOS is high at 32 though which keeps them in the back half of the Top 10.
9 #WakeForest
SOS: 86, QW: 3, T25W: 0, GC: 19.5

#GoDeacs modeled at 7 so while this is a little further back than expected, its not surprising. The SOS is on the low side but they make up for it with better than ave game control. 3 QWs also keeps them afloat.
8 #Oklahoma
SOS: 119, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 18.7

#Sooners modeled at 8 so this is where they should be. No surprise. Terrible SOS and just ok Game Control keep them here. If they had only played 8 games like Wake, they would have been behind the Deacons. SOS goes up from here.
7 #Michigan
SOS: 25, QW: 3, T25W: 0, GC: 20.0

#GoBlue has excellent SOS and good game control. 3 QWs and their schedule continues to have opportunities. Right where they should be. One of the 1 loss teams still alive for the Playoff because of their resume.
6 #Cincinnati

SOS: 111, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 25.6

#Bearcats have great game control. 3rd best in the poll. Problem is for G5s is that SOS. It really doesn't get better from here significantly either. Just so hard for G5 to put together a good resume using these rules.
5 #OhioState

SOS: 55, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 28.0

#Buckeyes modeled at 6 so this is no surprise. Decent SOS, and great game control make them the most dangerous 1 loss team in the poll. Even over the team currently above them due to the opportunity left on the schedule.
4 #Oregon

SOS: 112, QW: 3, T25W: 2, GC: 12.9

#GoDucks modeled at 5 so this again,not surprising. They have the spot for now due to 2 T25Ws, but they dont control their own destiny due to that SOS. Need Georgia to win out to keep a spot. No surprise they are currently here.
3 #MichiganState

SOS: 94, QW: 1, T25W: 1, GC: 14.1

#Spartans modeled at 5 but landed here which is not too surprising. That SOS will improve & they have a spot as long as they continue to win. They have this spot due to that comeback win. Without that, Sparty models around 10.
2 #Alabama

SOS: 37, QW: 2, T25W: 1, GC: 25.3

#RTR modeled at 2 so this is no surprise. Good SOS & also controlled it well w/ the 4th best GC in the poll. They control their destiny, win out and they are in. That SOS will continue to rise along w/ more QW opportunities.
1 #Georgia

SOS: 29, QW: 5, T25W: 2, GC: 31.3

Least surprising of all, #UGA at 1. Barring a terrible collapse the #Dawgs are in. They can lose once and still be in. Their resume is by far better than any other team out there.
That's it for now. Just remember, the committee is made up of busy people. Pres & ADs from businesses and universities. If u buy into the 'eye test' theory think about this for a second. In order to rank 25 teams; atleast 30 need to be evaluated, maybe more....(cont)
If each member watched only 1 hour of film on each of the 30 teams that's 30 hours of film between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning. They would have to 1) know what they are watching, 2) digest what they are watching, 3) evaluate 30 hrs of film in approx 60 hours...(cont)
These members don't have time for that & even if they did, do they have the expertise? They need a quick process. They have very defined rules which have been in place for 8 years. Its predictable. There is no eye test.

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More from @cfb_professor

29 Jul
So far everything Ive commented on in the realm of conference expansion has been make believe. Just day dreams. I did a little reading tho & wanted to go thru what is reality & most importantly, why? Ill be going thru all remaining P5 confs to shed light on their situation. #CFB
First, lets take a look at the #ACC. You can ignore anything you read regarding #NotreDame or any of the the #ACC schools leaving. Just keep right on scrolling, bc it isn’t happening. Why not? The #ACC has a grant of rights agreement which extends until 2036. (continued)
No school is going to be putting their TV revenue on the line for the next 15 yrs. Just wont happen. By the end of this grant of rights agreement tho, the #ACC will be making nearly half of what the #BigTen & #SEC will be in TV revenue (only $34 Million per team in ’19). (cont)
Read 16 tweets
20 Nov 19
Version 3 of the #CFBPlayoff rankings were released last night. What you expected? If youve followed along since early Oct you know the process. You werent surprised. For the rest of you, lets take a look & compare to what was projected using the same process used for 5 yrs.
First off, why does the committee use this process? Think about it. 14 busy guys make up this committee. They have roughly 60 hrs from when the last game ends on Sat to when they need to have this Top 25 created on Tues. If they evaluate only 30 teams to get that 25, how much
time is adequate to evaulate? 1 hr? Thats 30 hrs of evaluation. Half the time is gone & no one has slept. The process of getting a consensus out of 14 people hasnt even started. Thats why this process is kept so simple, & its why they have a defined predictable process.
Read 29 tweets

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