The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.
Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.
He needed to be on top of the CF!
This isn’t a one off for #DeGea his close range 1v1 stopping has been poor for 3 seasons
Close range 1v1s Faced: 28
Close range 1v1s ExSaved: 15.2
Close range 1v1s Saved: 11
Close range 1v1 Performance: -4.2
(Ranked bottom for PL GKs who have faced over 20 close range 1v1s)
I have regularly outlined why #DeGea struggles with close range 1v1s but I think after last night it is worth going over this again & digging into why he struggles so much!
It comes down to 3 main issues that consistently stop him saving as many close range 1v1s as he could:
1.Not engaging the striker
#DeGea often trusts his reactions far more than he should & stays close to his line rather than engaging the striker & attacking the ball.
Trying to react to a close range 1v1 shot rarely works because there simple isn’t enough time to react!
2. Engaging but dropping into a premeditated barrier far from the striker
Engaging & forming a barrier doesn’t require reaction time & should block a large portion of the goal & force the striker to hit the ball into you but this doesn’t work if you aren’t close to the striker!
3. Poor premeditated barrier shape in order to avoid contact
The engage & block/spread strategies efficiency also relies on the barrier shape being maintained throughout the save but #DeGea often twists his body away in order to avoid contact or fails to form the shape properly
In conclusion last night wasn’t great for #DeGea but I’m less worried about the first goal occurring again than I am about the second goal because close range 1v1s are a far more of a consistent issue with #DeGea than shot stopping technique selection!
Only time will tell though
As always if you are interested in the 1v1 statistics & techniques & strategies I outlined in this thread check out my pinned tweet for more information!
Has #Ederson turned a corner regarding his issues with long range 1v1s?
Yesterday he positioned himself perfectly inside his 6yrd box during this long range 1v1 thus allowing his defender to pressure the ball while maximising the finish difficulty for the striker!
#SOUMCI #MCFC
#Ederson highlighted how waiting deep is not a passive strategy!
As GKs should only wait deep until the CF gets close enough that the GK will not have enough reaction time to make a save, which is what #Ederson did as he rushed & smothered once the CF was within 14yrd of goal!
#Ederson has had huge problems with 1v1 situations like these in the past as he has rushed out too soon & found himself at the PK spot (rather than the 6yrd box) which gifts the opposition CF simpler finishes like chips & sidefoots while also not allowing his CBs to get back!
If #DeGea had rushed out to engage this touch he would’ve turned a 38% goal probability chance into a 61% goal probability chance as MA could’ve easily rounded him or chipped him!
By waiting he dictated the 1v1 to MA & made him make a decision, MA chose to take another touch…
Rather than continuing to stay deep #DeGea realised that now MA was close enough that his reaction time may not be enough to save the shot so he rushed & formed the premeditated block barrier reducing the goal probability to 34%!
#Karius made 8 saves vs #MUFC, but GKing is about quality not quantity!
5 of the saves had xSave>99% thus #PremierLeague GKs save them every time!
The 2 interesting & difficult saves were the 1v1 vs #Bruno & #Weghorst’s long range shot! Which beat #PL GKs 41% & 29% of the time!
It was these saves whose difficulty outweighed the 2 goals #Karius conceded meaning #Karius saved an above expected amount of shots in the #LeagueCupFinal
#Karius could do nothing with the #Casemiro goal (xSave probability<5%) but the #Rashford goal was a little more interesting
#DeGea made the save look easy & made the save far easier for himself due to his top class decision to hold deep & then use his top hand. This made a difficult situation comfortable!
The GK xG model shown above looks at every shot faced, pass received, cross faced & through ball faced & calculates the probability of a goal occurring for & against the GK’s team before the event & after the event occurs!
Thus it measures & evaluates every action a GKs makes!
This allows all GKs to be given a single number measured in goals called
“Total Value in Goals”
Which describes the GK’s value to their side vs having a league average GK & takes into account everything they do meaning GKs of vastly different styles can be fairly compared!
When receiving the ball under pressure, both #Chelsea GKs have been below the #PremierLeague standard!
#Mendy has cost #CFC 0.52 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations (this is heavily influenced by his mistake vs Leeds)
Similarly #Kepa has cost #CFC 0.59 xG more than the avg #PL GK would be expected to if they received the ball in the same situations as he did in his last 15 #PremierLeague games, #Kepa’s numbers here are heavily influenced by his mistake vs #Liverpool which #Mane capitalised on!