NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... ImageImage
First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):

#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9
#CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1
Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4
#CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9
#CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8
Finally, the three biggest "winners" in this draft:

#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +20
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +7
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +6
Bottom line: there are roughly even numbers of Ds/Rs in these categories. It's easy to see how the current 42D-11R breakdown could give way to 39D-13R in a good GOP year ('22?), but maybe 47D-5R in a great Dem year.

And don't forget: this draft will change, perhaps a lot.

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More from @Redistrict

10 Nov
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL.
What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):

#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):

#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though.… ImageImage
As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (#IL03) on the north side of Chicago. But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured #IL06.
This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s house into Rep. Bobby Rush (D)'s plurality Black #IL01 (!).
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.

In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
Read 5 tweets
8 Oct
New @CookPolitical: just when Florida Dems thought it couldn't get any worse, it's about to. Why FL is the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2022.…
Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin.
The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble.
Read 5 tweets

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