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11 Nov, 5 tweets, 5 min read
NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps ImageImage
First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):

#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9
#CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1
Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4
#CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9
#CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8
Finally, the three biggest "winners" in this draft:

#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +20
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +7
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +6
Bottom line: there are roughly even numbers of Ds/Rs in these categories. It's easy to see how the current 42D-11R breakdown could give way to 39D-13R in a good GOP year ('22?), but maybe 47D-5R in a great Dem year.

And don't forget: this draft will change, perhaps a lot.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
10 Nov
NEW: FL's Senate Rs release four draft congressional maps. Bizarre: these maps shore up #FL27 Rep. Maria Salazar (R), but otherwise are barely gerrymanders. By my count these maps break down 16-12 Trump-Biden, vs. 15-12 today. Is this a head fake?
These maps would put #FL15 Rep. Scott Franklin (R) in the new safe R #FL28, but turn #FL15 into a *Biden* seat in the east Tampa suburbs - effectively creating a new Dem seat. I can't imagine this is going to be the ultimate GOP plan in FL.
What's more, the map keeps #FL07 Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and #FL13 Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts. I'd be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
2 Nov
Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
27 Oct
First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):

#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3
Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):

#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
23 Oct
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?… ImageImage
As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (#IL03) on the north side of Chicago. But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured #IL06.
This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s house into Rep. Bobby Rush (D)'s plurality Black #IL01 (!).
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
13 Oct
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.

In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
8 Oct
New @CookPolitical: just when Florida Dems thought it couldn't get any worse, it's about to. Why FL is the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2022. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin.
The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble.
Read 5 tweets

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