VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal... 
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.
In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
That last map is probably a worst-case scenario for Dems (btw, these are all shaded w/ a composite party score b/c DRA doesn't have 2020 results for VA yet).
Even so, even a least-change scenario would put Rs within reach of 6R-5D in a favorable midterm - a bad outcome for Ds.
Even so, even a least-change scenario would put Rs within reach of 6R-5D in a favorable midterm - a bad outcome for Ds.
A final addendum: VA Dems have been anticipating court-drawn maps and have tried to ensure they'll have a say in how they're drawn. But there's no guarantee the final product will be to their liking.
https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1448290529020727304?s=20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
