Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city.
https://twitter.com/CvilleVotes/status/1455526394688118787
There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV
Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV
Update: the pace of in-person voting in Charlottesville increased *a lot* between 9am and 1pm, now putting it on track to perhaps slightly exceed 2017's 16.5k turnout - a relief for Dems.
https://twitter.com/CvilleVotes/status/1455585522995302400?s=20
Look, EDay turnout prognostication is inherently messy (and apologies for screwing up the AB/EV numbers in the tweets I deleted earlier). In full disclosure, I was once a college student/Charlottesville voter who woke up late, so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by the upswing.
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