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23 Oct, 5 tweets, 4 min read
Breaking: as predicted, IL Dems have revised their proposal to a safer, more aggressive 14D-3R gerrymander. It's still about as ugly as before, though. google.com/maps/d/viewer?… ImageImage
As I hinted last Sunday, this version creates a new, much-anticipated Latino seat (#IL03) on the north side of Chicago. But, it would do so by merging the homes of Reps. Marie Newman (D) and Sean Casten (D) in a reconfigured #IL06.
This version also (very blatantly) merges the homes of Reps. Mary Miller (R) and Mike Bost (R) in a new #IL12, and puts Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s house into Rep. Bobby Rush (D)'s plurality Black #IL01 (!).
Here's why I'd consider this new 14D-3R proposal a "safer," more brutal partisan play (vs. first draft)...

#IL03 Newman (D) - Biden +12 (Biden +6)
#IL14: Underwood (D) - Biden +12 (Biden +8)
#IL17: Bustos (D) - Biden +9 (Biden +6)
Interestingly, this proposal still leaves #IL13 and #IL17 about two points shy of the top Biden margins possible in hypothetical Rockford-to-Bloomington and East St. Louis-to-Champaign districts.

But, these gerrymanders are much closer to "maxed out" than in the first draft.

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More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
13 Oct
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.

In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
8 Oct
New @CookPolitical: just when Florida Dems thought it couldn't get any worse, it's about to. Why FL is the GOP's biggest redistricting weapon of 2022. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
Thanks to the FL Supreme Court's hard right turn, Republicans could stretch their current 16R-11D lead in House seats (left) to as wide as 19R-9D (example, right) - erasing most of Dems' current House margin.
The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
27 Sep
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected
Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.

The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
20 Sep
THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 8 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
31 Aug
OREGON: is gaining a sixth district in 2022, which means all five current districts below will need to shed 117k+ residents to make way for #OR06. A quick thread...
Dems have held a 4-1 seat lead since 1996, and control the redistricting trifecta. But, they also have a geography problem: Oregon's Dems are so clustered in Portland that if you were to draw a map based on compactness alone (below), Rs might have a shot at winning 3/6 seats.
In addition, Oregon has a rare tradition of bipartisan cooperation on maps. Earlier this year, Speaker Tina Kotek (D) struck a deal to give Rs equal power on the state house redistricting committee, though many Ds insist they can still ultimately pass a map w/o GOP support.
Read 7 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
19 Aug
OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.

But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
Read 7 tweets

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